Luana Lopes Lara

"We really think that prediction markets will be bigger than the stock market. And I think the reason for that is that what prediction markets are is markets on anything that happens in the future... anyone in the world will have some opinion." Kalshi's landmark legal victory against the US government (CFTC) has officially de-risked and legalized event-based contracts as a financial asset class. While Kalshi is a private startup, this regulatory breakthrough creates a massive new Total Addressable Market (TAM) for public financial infrastructure companies. Forward-thinking brokerages (like Interactive Brokers, which recently launched its own prediction market, ForecastEx) and legacy derivative exchanges (CME, CBOE) are perfectly positioned to monetize this new retail and institutional demand by integrating event contracts into their existing platforms. LONG. The mainstreaming of prediction markets creates a net-new, high-margin revenue vertical for established public exchanges and brokerages that adapt to the event-trading boom. Private pure-play platforms (like Kalshi or crypto-native Polymarket) could monopolize the liquidity and volume, preventing legacy public exchanges from capturing meaningful market share. Additionally, future administrations could attempt to introduce new restrictive legislation against event betting.

"We really think that prediction markets will be bigger than the stock market. And I think the reason for that is that what prediction markets are is markets on anything that happens in the future... anyone in the world will have some opinion." Kalshi's landmark legal victory against the US government (CFTC) has officially de-risked and legalized event-based contracts as a financial asset class. While Kalshi is a private startup, this regulatory breakthrough creates a massive new Total Addressable Market (TAM) for public financial infrastructure companies. Forward-thinking brokerages (like Interactive Brokers, which recently launched its own prediction market, ForecastEx) and legacy derivative exchanges (CME, CBOE) are perfectly positioned to monetize this new retail and institutional demand by integrating event contracts into their existing platforms. LONG. The mainstreaming of prediction markets creates a net-new, high-margin revenue vertical for established public exchanges and brokerages that adapt to the event-trading boom. Private pure-play platforms (like Kalshi or crypto-native Polymarket) could monopolize the liquidity and volume, preventing legacy public exchanges from capturing meaningful market share. Additionally, future administrations could attempt to introduce new restrictive legislation against event betting.

"We really think that prediction markets will be bigger than the stock market. And I think the reason for that is that what prediction markets are is markets on anything that happens in the future... anyone in the world will have some opinion." Kalshi's landmark legal victory against the US government (CFTC) has officially de-risked and legalized event-based contracts as a financial asset class. While Kalshi is a private startup, this regulatory breakthrough creates a massive new Total Addressable Market (TAM) for public financial infrastructure companies. Forward-thinking brokerages (like Interactive Brokers, which recently launched its own prediction market, ForecastEx) and legacy derivative exchanges (CME, CBOE) are perfectly positioned to monetize this new retail and institutional demand by integrating event contracts into their existing platforms. LONG. The mainstreaming of prediction markets creates a net-new, high-margin revenue vertical for established public exchanges and brokerages that adapt to the event-trading boom. Private pure-play platforms (like Kalshi or crypto-native Polymarket) could monopolize the liquidity and volume, preventing legacy public exchanges from capturing meaningful market share. Additionally, future administrations could attempt to introduce new restrictive legislation against event betting.