The Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the Iran conflict, providing Iran with significant leverage. Panetta states that until the Strait is opened, Iran maintains this leverage, which will continue to negatively impact oil prices and the global economy. The closure of this critical chokepoint constrains global oil supply. Reopening it requires a complex, large-scale military operation that is not yet underway and may involve significant escalation. Continued closure or protracted military planning sustains supply uncertainty and upward price pressure. WATCH because the oil price trajectory is directly tied to highly fluid geopolitical developments. The situation presents clear upside risk if the conflict persists or escalates, but also potential for a sharp correction if the Strait is reopened swiftly. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a successful U.S.-led military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz could quickly alleviate supply fears and reverse recent price gains.