Lee Joon-yeok

J.P. Morgan report highlights tight global oil supply: Hormuz Strait disruption is being partially offset by pipeline diversions, SPR releases, and demand destruction, but those buffers are depleting. China alone absorbed 74% of the supply shock in May by slashing imports, but that is temporary. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing, global oil inventories are down ~15% YTD, and SPR is near 3.4 billion barrels, the lowest since August 2023. J.P. Morgan forecasts Brent average $96/bbl and WTI $89/bbl in 2026, with Q2–Q3 seeing high levels sustained. Upside risk remains as geopolitical tensions and inventory draws persist, while demand destruction is reaching its limit.