Laura Walter 2.3 4 ideas

"The IRS is requiring that everybody move from what's called a universal method of accounting to a wallet-by-wallet method... If you transfer anything into your Coinbase, you're going to have to provide the cost basis upon transfer... discourage[s] transferring a little bit." The new "wallet-by-wallet" rule destroys the convenience of moving assets between DeFi, cold storage, and exchanges. To avoid a tax reporting nightmare (reconciling transfers manually), retail users will consolidate activity onto single platforms that handle the 1099-DA automatically. Coinbase and Robinhood benefit from higher retention and reduced churn to DeFi. LONG. Regulatory friction acts as a moat for compliant, centralized US exchanges. Users may leave crypto entirely due to complexity rather than consolidating.

"In 2026, the... bill limits gambling losses to now 90% of winnings... You technically broke even. But on your return, you actually now... pay tax on $10,000 of phantom gambling income." Prediction markets are treated as gambling. The new 2026 tax law creates a mathematical disadvantage for high-volume traders. If you bet $100k and win $100k (break even), you can only deduct $90k of losses, leaving you with $10k of taxable income despite making $0 profit. This destroys the liquidity incentives for market makers and heavy users. AVOID. The tax code now penalizes volume on these platforms. Legislation could change or "Parity Act" could reclassify these assets.