Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen

"The pill starts with zero... we have 246,000 people after five weeks... 15 times better than when we launched Wegovy injection." + "90% of the people that are coming towards the pill are new patients." The market recently sold off NVO on fears of pricing pressure ("price cuts are happening on day one"). However, the CEO's data confirms that volume growth is massive and, crucially, the oral pill is expanding the Total Addressable Market (TAM) rather than cannibalizing existing injectable revenue. The volume ramp will likely offset pricing headwinds faster than Wall Street models expect. LONG NVO as the oral pill unlocks a new demographic of patients averse to injections. Supply constraints or faster-than-expected pricing degradation.

"We saw Hims and Hers come out with basically a copycat... They since have scrapped that pill version... FDA came out and move pretty quickly against them." + "Lawsuit is around the Semaglutide IP as a whole... If anyone can bypass the FDA and simply put any product into the market, then the system is broken." HIMS has benefited from the shortage of branded GLP-1s by offering compounded alternatives. NVO is now explicitly targeting the "mass compounding" business model with legal force, and the FDA is aligning with big pharma. Even though HIMS scrapped the pill, NVO is pursuing the suit to protect the IP "as a whole," threatening the viability of HIMS's compounded GLP-1 revenue stream. SHORT HIMS due to existential legal and regulatory headwinds. HIMS successfully pivots to other verticals or the lawsuit is dismissed.