Larry Coben

The CEO states NRG's base plan projects a 14%+ increase in EBITDA and EPS without any new data centers or price increases. He explicitly says the company is "very well positioned, even if there's never another data center in the world." This provides a high-confidence floor for growth. On top of this, the demand for AI/data centers represents massive optionality (6+ gigawatts, ~$2.5B EBITDA), which they will only pursue under contract with creditworthy partners, de-risking the growth. The combination of a strong, visible base growth rate and a large, low-risk potential upside from a secular trend supports a positive view on the company. A severe economic downturn that cripples base electricity demand, or a total collapse in hyperscaler capex leading to no data center contracts.