KC Singh 2.9 1 idea

India imports the vast majority of its oil. Singh notes India has only 1.5 to 2 months of reserves and faces "extreme risk" from shortages. Remittances (1/3rd of total) from the Gulf are at risk as workers flee. India is a net energy importer. A sustained spike in oil prices widens their Current Account Deficit, weakens the Rupee, and spikes domestic inflation. Combined with the loss of remittances, the macro picture for India deteriorates rapidly in a Gulf conflict. SHORT India ETFs as a macro play against rising oil prices. India successfully pivots to buying discounted Russian oil to offset Gulf disruptions.