Joseph Stiglitz

"You look at where is the increase in jobs in the United States, health care... it has to do with people like us... getting old." While the political narrative focuses on a manufacturing renaissance, the actual economic data shows structural growth is confined to the service sector, specifically health care driven by undeniable demographic trends (aging population). Capital should follow the actual job creation and demand rather than political promises. LONG. Regulatory changes or government price controls on medical services.

"Now, of course, the oil companies, Exxon, are going to be very happy. Russia is going to be very happy... Exxon successfully pushed back against those efforts [windfall taxes] and they will do the same if we try that today." The war with Iran is causing a real, physical disruption to global oil supplies, driving prices above $100. Major US oil producers will capture massive windfall profits from this supply shock, and historical precedent suggests they will successfully lobby against any government attempts to tax these excess margins. LONG. US energy majors are perfectly positioned to benefit from soaring crude prices while remaining insulated from domestic windfall taxes. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict or a severe global recession that destroys baseline oil demand.

"We want to be free from Russian invasion. So, we need to have a defense... Russia is an enemy that exists and they don't believe in democracy. We need to protect ourselves." The escalating geopolitical fragmentation, highlighted by conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, guarantees that Western governments will be forced to maintain or expand defense budgets regardless of domestic economic weakness. LONG. Prime defense contractors offer a safe haven with visible, government-backed revenue streams during periods of global instability. A sweeping global peace initiative or severe US fiscal austerity measures that force cuts to the defense budget.

"We want to be free from Russian invasion. So, we need to have a defense... Russia is an enemy that exists and they don't believe in democracy. We need to protect ourselves." The escalating geopolitical fragmentation, highlighted by conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, guarantees that Western governments will be forced to maintain or expand defense budgets regardless of domestic economic weakness. LONG. Prime defense contractors offer a safe haven with visible, government-backed revenue streams during periods of global instability. A sweeping global peace initiative or severe US fiscal austerity measures that force cuts to the defense budget.

"Now, of course, the oil companies, Exxon, are going to be very happy. Russia is going to be very happy... Exxon successfully pushed back against those efforts [windfall taxes] and they will do the same if we try that today." The war with Iran is causing a real, physical disruption to global oil supplies, driving prices above $100. Major US oil producers will capture massive windfall profits from this supply shock, and historical precedent suggests they will successfully lobby against any government attempts to tax these excess margins. LONG. US energy majors are perfectly positioned to benefit from soaring crude prices while remaining insulated from domestic windfall taxes. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict or a severe global recession that destroys baseline oil demand.

"We want to be free from Russian invasion. So, we need to have a defense... Russia is an enemy that exists and they don't believe in democracy. We need to protect ourselves." The escalating geopolitical fragmentation, highlighted by conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, guarantees that Western governments will be forced to maintain or expand defense budgets regardless of domestic economic weakness. LONG. Prime defense contractors offer a safe haven with visible, government-backed revenue streams during periods of global instability. A sweeping global peace initiative or severe US fiscal austerity measures that force cuts to the defense budget.

"Now, of course, the oil companies, Exxon, are going to be very happy. Russia is going to be very happy... Exxon successfully pushed back against those efforts [windfall taxes] and they will do the same if we try that today." The war with Iran is causing a real, physical disruption to global oil supplies, driving prices above $100. Major US oil producers will capture massive windfall profits from this supply shock, and historical precedent suggests they will successfully lobby against any government attempts to tax these excess margins. LONG. US energy majors are perfectly positioned to benefit from soaring crude prices while remaining insulated from domestic windfall taxes. A sudden diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict or a severe global recession that destroys baseline oil demand.