John Rogers 1.6 23 ideas

Rogers identifies Financial Services as undervalued. Specifically names Carlyle (CG) as trading at ~10x earnings with less software exposure than peers. Names Lazard (LAZ) as a beneficiary of M&A/Spinoff activity. Names JLL for real estate complexity. The market hates financials due to rate fears and commercial real estate panic. However, M&A is rebounding (Lazard), and private equity firms that avoided the software bubble (Carlyle) are mispriced relative to their earnings power. LONG Value Financials. M&A cycle stalls; commercial real estate collapse deepens.

Rogers states, "Americans no longer are drinking alcohol the way they used to." A secular decline in alcohol consumption (health trends, GLP-1 drugs) makes the "moat" of beer and spirits companies structurally weaker. They are value traps. AVOID Alcohol/Spirits stocks. International growth offsets US decline.

Rogers believes "Experiences" will dominate consumer spending as AI frees up time. Explicitly names the cruise lines and Madison Square Garden assets (MSGE/SPHR). Consumers are prioritizing doing over owning. Cruise lines and live entertainment venues have pricing power and high demand that is sticky even in softer economies. Sphere (SPHR) specifically mentioned as using AI to revolutionize entertainment costs/experience. LONG Experience/Leisure stocks. Consumer recession curbs discretionary travel spending.

Rogers calls Financial Services "extremely cheap." He explicitly praises Lazard (LAZ) for M&A potential in a deregulated environment and Carlyle (CG) as oversold due to exaggerated private credit fears. Rogers believes the Trump administration (implied by "deregulated environment") will fuel deal-making. If rates come down (which he predicts the Fed will do to please the President), M&A activity explodes, directly benefiting advisory firms like Lazard and asset managers like Carlyle. LONG. A contrarian value play against the tech-heavy index. A "small recession" at year-end (which Rogers predicts) could freeze deal flow.

Rogers names Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) as a favorite, stating AI will make brokers more efficient rather than replacing them. The market has punished real estate services on fears that AI makes them obsolete and high rates kill commercial real estate. Rogers argues the "human touch" is still required for complex moves, and the stock is mispriced relative to its utility. LONG. Deep value play. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) collapse continues; AI displacement happens faster than anticipated.

Rogers compares the current tech environment to the Nifty 50/Dot-com bubble and explicitly says, "I have seen the Palantirs of the world started to have their comeuppance." He views the AI hype trade as overextended. When a disciplined value investor singles out a specific high-flyer as having a "comeuppance," it signals a rotation out of growth/momentum and into value. SHORT. Betting on multiple compression as the "AI bubble" deflates. AI mania continues; Palantir secures massive government defense contracts due to the Iran conflict.