Speaker states the key variable is not war escalation but the "duration" of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which would cause a "trade shock" and force a reallocation of capital based on regional energy security. A prolonged closure would transmit through higher oil prices and benefit energy-exporting regions over importers. This shock would accelerate existing trends in a multipolar world, making energy security a primary investment theme and geographic decision factor (e.g., for data center build-out). Oil (and gas) are critical assets to monitor as the primary transmission mechanism for the conflict's economic impact, with price and inventory levels determining regional market winners and losers. A swift diplomatic resolution reopens the Strait, causing oil prices to correct and mitigating the trade shock and reallocation theme.