Jeff Blaser

"We think it's more of a buy outside the U.S. We like Europe, core Europe. The idea of two hikes priced in this year is not appropriate." The market is pricing in rate hikes for the ECB due to the inflationary impact of the energy shock. However, central banks typically look through supply shocks. The severe hit to European economic growth from triple-digit oil prices will ultimately force the ECB to cut rates, not hike them, driving bond yields lower. LONG European sovereign bonds as the market is incorrectly pricing in ECB rate hikes during a growth-destroying energy shock. If the energy shock causes persistent stagflation and the ECB rigidly prioritizes its inflation mandate over economic growth, they may actually hike rates, hurting bond prices.

"We think it's more of a buy outside the U.S. We like Europe, core Europe. The idea of two hikes priced in this year is not appropriate." The market is pricing in rate hikes for the ECB due to the inflationary impact of the energy shock. However, central banks typically look through supply shocks. The severe hit to European economic growth from triple-digit oil prices will ultimately force the ECB to cut rates, not hike them, driving bond yields lower. LONG European sovereign bonds as the market is incorrectly pricing in ECB rate hikes during a growth-destroying energy shock. If the energy shock causes persistent stagflation and the ECB rigidly prioritizes its inflation mandate over economic growth, they may actually hike rates, hurting bond prices.