Jahangir Aziz

Aziz notes India imports ~85% of its oil and faces a "large macro shock" if oil stays elevated. Ajay adds that the "rotation away from the US to Asia" seen in recent months will reverse because Asia depends on the Strait of Hormuz, while the US does not. Higher oil prices act as a tax on Asian economies, widening current account deficits (especially India) and crushing corporate margins (Korea/Japan). This triggers capital flight back to the US Dollar. SHORT Asian importers (India/Korea) to hedge against prolonged energy disruption. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly (under 2 weeks), these markets could snap back violently.

Aziz notes India imports ~85% of its oil and faces a "large macro shock" if oil stays elevated. Ajay adds that the "rotation away from the US to Asia" seen in recent months will reverse because Asia depends on the Strait of Hormuz, while the US does not. Higher oil prices act as a tax on Asian economies, widening current account deficits (especially India) and crushing corporate margins (Korea/Japan). This triggers capital flight back to the US Dollar. SHORT Asian importers (India/Korea) to hedge against prolonged energy disruption. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly (under 2 weeks), these markets could snap back violently.