Jacob Larsen

"Shipping companies in general are not comfortable sending ships through the Straits of Hormuz." Ships are trapped inside, and those outside are refusing to enter. This is a classic dislocation trade. While Gulf volume is down, the *efficiency* of the global fleet has collapsed. Buyers must source oil from further away (e.g., US to Asia, West Africa to Europe), increasing ton-miles. With many tankers trapped or refusing to sail, the supply of *available* tankers for safe routes plummets, causing freight rates on non-Gulf routes to skyrocket. LONG tanker companies with fleets positioned outside the Persian Gulf. If the Strait reopens quickly, the risk premium evaporates and rates crash.

"Shipping companies in general are not comfortable sending ships through the Straits of Hormuz." Ships are trapped inside, and those outside are refusing to enter. This is a classic dislocation trade. While Gulf volume is down, the *efficiency* of the global fleet has collapsed. Buyers must source oil from further away (e.g., US to Asia, West Africa to Europe), increasing ton-miles. With many tankers trapped or refusing to sail, the supply of *available* tankers for safe routes plummets, causing freight rates on non-Gulf routes to skyrocket. LONG tanker companies with fleets positioned outside the Persian Gulf. If the Strait reopens quickly, the risk premium evaporates and rates crash.