The Strait of Hormuz closure has "structurally reconfigured" global energy supplies, creating physical bottlenecks. Even with a cease-fire, logistical issues (e.g., 1300 queued ships, insurance premiums, legal costs) will cause a protracted 12-week+ resolution. The physical supply/demand disconnect (spot prices at $145 vs. futures at $100) will only dissipate slowly as logistics untangle. This creates persistent price stickiness and a risk premium. WATCH due to the high likelihood of sustained price volatility and elevated levels ($75-$80 by year-end per Greg Daco) even after a geopolitical resolution, driven by slow-moving physical logistics. A faster-than-expected normalization of shipping traffic and a swift drop in insurance premiums could cause prices to fall more rapidly.