Henry Allen

Allen expressed confidence in the de-escalation pathway, noting the oil shock was never priced as sustained (6-month futures were far below spot). He said equity markets were only down 5-6% from highs, implying room to recover. Trump's incentives (midterms, gasoline prices, approval ratings) are geared toward de-escalation. A temporary oil shock (weeks, not months) has limited growth impact, allowing central banks to avoid aggressive hikes. Europe, as an energy importer, benefits disproportionately from lower oil. LONG European equities (epitomized by the energy-sensitive DAX) because the worst-case scenario (sustained war/energy shock) is receding, and the market had not priced in a deep downturn. The ceasefire breaks down within the two-week window, leading to renewed escalation.

Allen expressed confidence in the de-escalation pathway, noting the oil shock was never priced as sustained (6-month futures were far below spot). He said equity markets were only down 5-6% from highs, implying room to recover. Trump's incentives (midterms, gasoline prices, approval ratings) are geared toward de-escalation. A temporary oil shock (weeks, not months) has limited growth impact, allowing central banks to avoid aggressive hikes. Europe, as an energy importer, benefits disproportionately from lower oil. LONG European equities (epitomized by the energy-sensitive DAX) because the worst-case scenario (sustained war/energy shock) is receding, and the market had not priced in a deep downturn. The ceasefire breaks down within the two-week window, leading to renewed escalation.