Gregory Peters 1.5 3 ideas

There is $5.3T in financing needs over the next 5 years. Peters notes a "clear revisitation of the software space" in credit markets, with massive debt issuance (e.g., Google's recent deal) hitting the market. Equity valuations in AI are stretched and volatile. The debt market offers a cleaner way to play the AI infrastructure build-out ($5.3T need) with better risk-adjusted returns and seniority in the capital structure. LONG. Buy the debt of major tech/software firms financing the AI boom. Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing default risk for lower-quality software issuers.

Japan has a "broken bond market" due to years of intervention. Peters expects JGB rates to continue moving higher but explicitly states, "I expect the currency continue to weaken as well." Typically, higher rates strengthen a currency. Peters argues Japan is in a unique "cycle of readjustment" where rising yields trigger capital flight or carry trade unwinds that paradoxically weaken the Yen further while bonds sell off. SHORT JGBs (expecting higher yields) and SHORT JPY (expecting currency weakness). A sudden hawkish pivot by the BOJ that is more aggressive than priced in could spike the Yen.