Gary Peters 1.0 6 ideas

30% of the world's fertilizer supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and we are entering "planting season." Disruption in the Strait doesn't just affect oil; it creates a supply shock for agriculture inputs. If supply is choked off during the critical planting window, prices for fertilizer will spike, benefiting North American producers who are not dependent on the Strait. Domestic fertilizer producers (Mosaic, CF Industries, Nutrien) gain pricing power and market share as global supply tightens. If the Strait remains open or if the "planting season" window passes without major disruption.

DHS has laid off one-third of its cyber professionals due to funding/mismanagement, right as the US enters a kinetic war with Iran (a sophisticated cyber adversary). The government's internal cyber defense shield is weakened. This forces critical infrastructure and private enterprise to rely more heavily on private-sector cybersecurity solutions to defend against inevitable Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks. Increased threat level + decreased government capacity = bullish demand for private cybersecurity vendors. A swift resolution to the conflict or emergency funding restoring DHS cyber capabilities quickly.