Fred Kemp

"Every day that the straits are closed or the ships are not going through, could add 3 to $5 onto the barrel of oil. If this goes on for six weeks, you're up at $150 a barrel." Commercial ship owners are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical and military risks. This creates a massive global supply bottleneck. As the risk premium prices in, crude oil will experience a severe supply shock. USO directly tracks the price of crude oil and will appreciate rapidly as the commodity marches toward the projected $150 target. LONG. The US successfully secures the Strait with an allied coalition, or Iran's capabilities are degraded faster than expected, causing the geopolitical risk premium to evaporate and oil prices to normalize.

"The administration feels it cannot cut short this military campaign to cut short the military campaign would lose a historic moment to degrade Iran in all of its military capabilities." The US is actively engaged in a sustained military campaign, specifically targeting missile launch sites and dealing with drone/mine threats. Active, sustained military engagements require the continuous use and replenishment of munitions, missiles, and advanced defense systems. Major defense contractors and aerospace ETFs will see sustained or increased government orders to support this ongoing campaign. LONG. A sudden diplomatic resolution, a shift in US political appetite for the conflict, or budget constraints forcing the administration to halt the campaign prematurely.

"The administration feels it cannot cut short this military campaign to cut short the military campaign would lose a historic moment to degrade Iran in all of its military capabilities." The US is actively engaged in a sustained military campaign, specifically targeting missile launch sites and dealing with drone/mine threats. Active, sustained military engagements require the continuous use and replenishment of munitions, missiles, and advanced defense systems. Major defense contractors and aerospace ETFs will see sustained or increased government orders to support this ongoing campaign. LONG. A sudden diplomatic resolution, a shift in US political appetite for the conflict, or budget constraints forcing the administration to halt the campaign prematurely.

"The administration feels it cannot cut short this military campaign to cut short the military campaign would lose a historic moment to degrade Iran in all of its military capabilities." The US is actively engaged in a sustained military campaign, specifically targeting missile launch sites and dealing with drone/mine threats. Active, sustained military engagements require the continuous use and replenishment of munitions, missiles, and advanced defense systems. Major defense contractors and aerospace ETFs will see sustained or increased government orders to support this ongoing campaign. LONG. A sudden diplomatic resolution, a shift in US political appetite for the conflict, or budget constraints forcing the administration to halt the campaign prematurely.