The analyst's base case projects a 5% decline in Easter candy sales, a significant holiday representing ~10% of U.S. candy sales, with a potential for a 9% drop if consumers pull back further. She notes visible promotions and an eagerness to move inventory as a headwind. High cocoa prices have driven significant price increases for chocolate, a key Easter category. Consumers are strategically pushing back on these prices, weakening demand. The high incidence of shoppers waiting for post-holiday discounts further pressures sales value. Easter is framed as a bellwether for near-term industry performance. The combination of price-sensitive demand, elevated promotional activity, and the potential for a worse-than-expected sales decline points to headwinds for the broader candy and confectionery sector in the short term, making it an unattractive area. Consumer resilience could be stronger than anticipated, or cocoa price pressures could abate, easing the need for future price hikes and stabilizing volumes.