Dana Stroul
Research Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 05
$18.54
-11.3%
The U.S. is considering "naval escorts to vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of a "vast armada of small craft" and mines. Oil prices are "elevated above where they were four or five days ago." Even if the U.S. achieves air supremacy, asymmetric naval warfare (mines/small boats) in the Strait of Hormuz creates a massive risk premium for shipping. This benefits the commodity price (USO) due to supply fear, but specifically benefits Oil Tankers (FRO/DHT) as shipping rates spike when routes become dangerous or require longer diversions. LONG. The conflict is shifting to a naval/chokepoint phase. U.S. Navy successfully neutralizes all threats immediately, removing the risk premium.
The U.S. is considering "naval escorts to vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of a "vast armada of small craft" and mines. Oil prices are "elevated above where they were four or five days ago." Even if the U.S. achieves air supremacy, asymmetric naval warfare (mines/small boats) in the Strait of Hormuz creates a massive risk premium for shipping. This benefits the commodity price (USO) due to supply fear, but specifically benefits Oil Tankers (FRO/DHT) as shipping rates spike when routes become dangerous or require longer diversions. LONG. The conflict is shifting to a naval/chokepoint phase. U.S. Navy successfully neutralizes all threats immediately, removing the risk premium.
Other
Long
Mar 05
$34.92
-0.9%
The U.S. is considering "naval escorts to vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of a "vast armada of small craft" and mines. Oil prices are "elevated above where they were four or five days ago." Even if the U.S. achieves air supremacy, asymmetric naval warfare (mines/small boats) in the Strait of Hormuz creates a massive risk premium for shipping. This benefits the commodity price (USO) due to supply fear, but specifically benefits Oil Tankers (FRO/DHT) as shipping rates spike when routes become dangerous or require longer diversions. LONG. The conflict is shifting to a naval/chokepoint phase. U.S. Navy successfully neutralizes all threats immediately, removing the risk premium.
The U.S. is considering "naval escorts to vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of a "vast armada of small craft" and mines. Oil prices are "elevated above where they were four or five days ago." Even if the U.S. achieves air supremacy, asymmetric naval warfare (mines/small boats) in the Strait of Hormuz creates a massive risk premium for shipping. This benefits the commodity price (USO) due to supply fear, but specifically benefits Oil Tankers (FRO/DHT) as shipping rates spike when routes become dangerous or require longer diversions. LONG. The conflict is shifting to a naval/chokepoint phase. U.S. Navy successfully neutralizes all threats immediately, removing the risk premium.
Other
Long
Mar 05
$96.31
+46.5%
The U.S. is considering "naval escorts to vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of a "vast armada of small craft" and mines. Oil prices are "elevated above where they were four or five days ago." Even if the U.S. achieves air supremacy, asymmetric naval warfare (mines/small boats) in the Strait of Hormuz creates a massive risk premium for shipping. This benefits the commodity price (USO) due to supply fear, but specifically benefits Oil Tankers (FRO/DHT) as shipping rates spike when routes become dangerous or require longer diversions. LONG. The conflict is shifting to a naval/chokepoint phase. U.S. Navy successfully neutralizes all threats immediately, removing the risk premium.
The U.S. is considering "naval escorts to vessels" in the Strait of Hormuz due to the threat of a "vast armada of small craft" and mines. Oil prices are "elevated above where they were four or five days ago." Even if the U.S. achieves air supremacy, asymmetric naval warfare (mines/small boats) in the Strait of Hormuz creates a massive risk premium for shipping. This benefits the commodity price (USO) due to supply fear, but specifically benefits Oil Tankers (FRO/DHT) as shipping rates spike when routes become dangerous or require longer diversions. LONG. The conflict is shifting to a naval/chokepoint phase. U.S. Navy successfully neutralizes all threats immediately, removing the risk premium.
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