Pickering states the forward curve (2027-2028) shows prices in the high-$60s, which he feels is "a little conservative." He argues a more appropriate price, if the strait opens, is mid-to-high $70s, plus a $5-10 risk premium if Iran retains control. The market is underestimating the duration of supply disruption due to physical damage and the potential for a persistent geopolitical risk premium. The current forward curve may be mispriced, presenting a monitoring or positioning opportunity for a higher long-term equilibrium price. The Strait of Hormuz reopens fully and without Iranian conditions, quickly alleviating the supply crunch.