Global physical oil supply is severely disrupted, with 6-8 million barrels per day not reaching markets, draining stockpiles by roughly half a trillion barrels. Traders have been repeatedly burned by presidential jawboning that crushes long positions, leaving them spectacularly short near $75, which was the boring upper end of a pre-war range. When the physical reality of depleted stockpiles finally asserts itself, a violent price spike from $75 to $135 is likely, and current market pricing is overly optimistic.