Carl Tannenbaum 5.0 1 idea

Tannenbaum states his central case for oil is $100-$110/barrel, but he has looked at a "much higher" scenario which "isn't very pleasant" and "could certainly cause a global recession." He references BlackRock's Rob Kapito warning of a spike to $150. The price trajectory depends entirely on the evolution of the Iran conflict. An escalation, such as action against Kharg Island, would damage energy infrastructure and drive prices significantly higher. WATCH because the current price is headline-driven and subject to extreme volatility. The risk/reward is asymmetric, with a high-impact, low-probability tail risk of a price spike causing a global downturn. A swift and genuine diplomatic off-ramp that reopens the Strait of Hormuz fully, leading to a rapid normalization of flows and prices.