Brendan Fagan

There is a "Barbell Trade" dynamic: AI hardware is on one end, Software is on the other. When one rallies, the other falls. Over 40 names in the Software ETF are in a bear market over the last month. The narrative is shifting from "growth at any cost" in AI hardware to "value" in software. With valuations compressed (70% of names down over the last year), the risk/reward favors a mean reversion into software as investors seek cheaper entry points. LONG Software ETFs (IGV) or high-quality beaten-down SaaS names. If AI capex slows, software companies relying on AI integration features may fail to monetize, keeping valuations depressed.

The US has amassed its largest military force in the Middle East since the Iraq War. President Trump stated Iran has "15 days" to strike a deal. Traders are buying November $100 strike call options on oil. The explicit deadline and military buildup increase the probability of kinetic conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This creates an immediate risk premium for energy assets and defense contractors. LONG oil futures/energy equities and defense primes as a hedge against escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough or "deal" mentioned by Trump could cause a rapid deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.

The US has amassed its largest military force in the Middle East since the Iraq War. President Trump stated Iran has "15 days" to strike a deal. Traders are buying November $100 strike call options on oil. The explicit deadline and military buildup increase the probability of kinetic conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This creates an immediate risk premium for energy assets and defense contractors. LONG oil futures/energy equities and defense primes as a hedge against escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough or "deal" mentioned by Trump could cause a rapid deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.

The US has amassed its largest military force in the Middle East since the Iraq War. President Trump stated Iran has "15 days" to strike a deal. Traders are buying November $100 strike call options on oil. The explicit deadline and military buildup increase the probability of kinetic conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This creates an immediate risk premium for energy assets and defense contractors. LONG oil futures/energy equities and defense primes as a hedge against escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough or "deal" mentioned by Trump could cause a rapid deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.

The US has amassed its largest military force in the Middle East since the Iraq War. President Trump stated Iran has "15 days" to strike a deal. Traders are buying November $100 strike call options on oil. The explicit deadline and military buildup increase the probability of kinetic conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This creates an immediate risk premium for energy assets and defense contractors. LONG oil futures/energy equities and defense primes as a hedge against escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough or "deal" mentioned by Trump could cause a rapid deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.

The US has amassed its largest military force in the Middle East since the Iraq War. President Trump stated Iran has "15 days" to strike a deal. Traders are buying November $100 strike call options on oil. The explicit deadline and military buildup increase the probability of kinetic conflict or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This creates an immediate risk premium for energy assets and defense contractors. LONG oil futures/energy equities and defense primes as a hedge against escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough or "deal" mentioned by Trump could cause a rapid deflation of the geopolitical risk premium.

Fed minutes show officials discussed the "potential need to raise rates" if inflation stays high, contradicting the market's previous pricing for cuts. The market is caught offside on interest rate expectations. If the Fed pivots to hikes (or "higher for longer") while the ECB (Lagarde stepping down) and RBA face their own issues, the interest rate differential widens in favor of the USD. LONG USD (UUP) and SHORT DURATION (or hold Short-Term Treasuries/Cash). Trump administration explicitly intervening to devalue the dollar.

Fed minutes show officials discussed the "potential need to raise rates" if inflation stays high, contradicting the market's previous pricing for cuts. The market is caught offside on interest rate expectations. If the Fed pivots to hikes (or "higher for longer") while the ECB (Lagarde stepping down) and RBA face their own issues, the interest rate differential widens in favor of the USD. LONG USD (UUP) and SHORT DURATION (or hold Short-Term Treasuries/Cash). Trump administration explicitly intervening to devalue the dollar.