BNP Paribas Strategist (via Joumanna) vs. Arthur Budaghya 4.0 1 idea

The Fed minutes were hawkish (officials considering hikes if inflation persists), pushing the Dollar up short-term. However, BCA Research argues US portfolio inflows will drop below $1T, leading to a deflationary Dollar crash. There is a conflict between immediate policy (rates higher for longer = Strong USD) and structural flows (declining foreign investment = Weak USD). WATCH. The short-term trade is Long USD on Fed hawkishness, but the long-term macro thesis suggests a reversal. Fed pivots to cuts sooner than expected (weakens USD) or US exceptionalism continues attracting capital (strengthens USD).