Barry Bannister

Bitcoin is not acting like digital gold; it is behaving like an overextended, speculative tech stock. Bannister warns it could fall to the $38,000–$40,000 level. Historically, Bitcoin rose when the Dollar fell or when global money supply expanded. Recently, these correlations have inverted or broken. It is now purely a "liquidity instrument" that requires ever-cheaper interest rates to survive. Since the Fed is unlikely to cut rates as aggressively as the market wants, the primary driver for Bitcoin is vanishing. Technical analysis of the last three major drawdowns over 15 years suggests they all stopped at a specific trendline, which currently sits around $38,000. A sudden, unexpected return to aggressive quantitative easing or Fed rate cuts could invalidate the liquidity crunch thesis.