Anna Paglia 0.7 3 ideas

XLE is trading at inception highs (since 1998) with record inflows. OXY specifically mentioned as surging due to efficient Middle East operations despite the war. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to oil. Unlike previous crises, the US is energy independent, making US-based energy producers (held in XLE) a safe haven that benefits from global price spikes without the direct operational risk of assets located in the war zone. Momentum trade. Energy is the only sector acting as a true hedge right now. A quick diplomatic resolution or ceasefire could cause oil prices to crash rapidly.

The Private Credit ETF (PRIV) has tripled in size to $800M and is 80% investment grade. In a volatile environment where public equity markets are jittery about war, private credit offers yield with lower mark-to-market volatility. The focus on investment grade (rather than junk) provides a safety buffer against a recessionary shock caused by high oil prices. A defensive yield play. Liquidity events in the private credit space (referenced Blue Owl redemption issues, though Paglia dismisses the contagion risk).