Amos Haksef

The speaker states the current situation is the worst energy disruption ever, with 12M bpd of oil already lost, and that the market is "underpricing the current conditions" by pricing only risk, not disruption. The physical loss of supply is severe and the conflict is expected to last longer than the market believes, preventing a swift return of this supply. This fundamental shortage must eventually be reflected in prices. The market's current price level does not account for the true scale and duration of the supply disruption, implying significant upward pressure on crude oil prices. A swift, unexpected diplomatic resolution to the conflict that leads to a rapid reopening of the Strait and restoration of supply.