Alex Yaakov

"We think very little stops the dollar now from appreciating... the dollar has actually not reacted enough to the energy price shock... it only reacted with about a 50% beta." Past supply-related energy shocks have led to a stronger dollar. The initial market reaction traded inflation (which supported EUR/GBP via rate hike expectations), but the speaker believes the market will pivot to trading growth. Higher energy prices negatively impact growth in energy-importing regions like Europe more than in the US, which will drive dollar strength. Structural factors (US energy independence, relative growth impact) and a catch-up trade suggest the dollar has significant room to appreciate, especially against European currencies. A rapid resolution to the Iran conflict that normalizes energy flows and allows European growth and equity outperformance to resume, triggering negative dollar flows.