The World Bank President states the immediate economic priority of the conflict is inflation risk, specifically citing disruptions to "fertilizer" and downstream chemicals. Fertilizer production is heavily reliant on inputs like natural gas (feedstock) and sulfur. Disruption in the Middle East impacts the supply and cost of these inputs, driving up fertilizer prices, which directly impacts global food prices and inflation. WATCH because fertilizer is a critical, inflation-sensitive input for the global agriculture industry. Supply disruptions present a clear, near-term upside risk to the cost structure of the agriculture value chain and broader inflation metrics. The ceasefire holds and shipping resumes normally, allowing supply chains to restabilize quickly. Alternative sources of supply (e.g., outside the Middle East) ramp up.