Best trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
24 eval.
+3.3%
L +0.9%
S +29.6%
Win rate
62%
30 days
24 eval.
+3.3%
L +0.5%
S +69.3%
Win rate
50%
90 days
10 eval.
-14.1%
L -14.1%
S -
Win rate
30%
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Short
Energy
$58.02
-
Tom Lee explicitly agreed that Energy stocks are "going to go down now for obvious reasons" as oil prices cool with war de-escalation. Energy stocks rose due to geopolitical tensions driving oil prices higher; with the conflict de-escalating, oil prices are expected to flatten or decline, leading to downward pressure on Energy stocks. SHORT because the primary catalyst for the rally is reversing, making the sector vulnerable to declines. If oil prices remain elevated due to renewed geopolitical tensions or supply constraints.
Apr 08
Short
Other
$292.49
-
Fundstrat highlights that the net asset value multiple for VCX has reached twenty-eight times, suggesting significant valuation growth and potential upside for investors.
Mar 24
Long
Crypto
$0.04
-
ORBS presents a deeply discounted public market vehicle to gain exposure to OpenAI, trading at just 1x NAV compared to peers like VCX trading at 25x NAV.
Mar 24
Long
AI/Semi
$162.48
-
"I think software has bottomed because we tend to price in the negative risks early... the IGV which is the software ETF index has lost five multiple points. Now the forward PE is 16 times." The software sector has already endured its own bear market, washing out speculative premiums. With multiples compressed to cyclical levels (16x forward P/E), the downside risk is largely priced in. Companies with durable, recurring revenue models offer an attractive risk/reward entry point. LONG software equities as the sector has de-risked its valuation and offers durable business models at a discount. A broader macroeconomic slowdown could cause enterprise IT budgets to contract, leading to earnings downgrades that make the 16x multiple look expensive in hindsight.
Mar 10
Long
AI/Semi
$655.08
-
Host Leslie Picker notes these specific tickers are trading up/better despite geopolitical fears. Tom Lee responds, "March was the makings of a bottom... the Mag-7 and the Cryptos... are outperforming. And I think that's a sign of leadership." When high-beta growth stocks (AI/Tech) ignore macro fear and rise while the broad market is choppy, it indicates smart money is stepping in. These assets are leading the recovery, suggesting the "winter" for tech is over. Long exposure to these specific mega-cap tech names as the leaders of the next rally. Escalation in geopolitical conflict causing a broad liquidity crunch that drags down even high-quality tech.
Mar 03
Long
Consumer
$208.73
-
Host Leslie Picker notes these specific tickers are trading up/better despite geopolitical fears. Tom Lee responds, "March was the makings of a bottom... the Mag-7 and the Cryptos... are outperforming. And I think that's a sign of leadership." When high-beta growth stocks (AI/Tech) ignore macro fear and rise while the broad market is choppy, it indicates smart money is stepping in. These assets are leading the recovery, suggesting the "winter" for tech is over. Long exposure to these specific mega-cap tech names as the leaders of the next rally. Escalation in geopolitical conflict causing a broad liquidity crunch that drags down even high-quality tech.
Mar 03
Long
Energy
$87.19
-
"Oil is going to create a price shock... Oil companies obviously are going to reap some benefits." Geopolitical tension in the Middle East disrupts supply chains. While bad for the consumer, this directly increases margins and profitability for US-based oil producers and the commodity itself. LONG Energy producers and Oil futures proxies. Rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tension causing oil prices to plummet.
Mar 02
Long
Energy
$57.04
-
"Oil is going to create a price shock... Oil companies obviously are going to reap some benefits." Geopolitical tension in the Middle East disrupts supply chains. While bad for the consumer, this directly increases margins and profitability for US-based oil producers and the commodity itself. LONG Energy producers and Oil futures proxies. Rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tension causing oil prices to plummet.
Mar 02
Long
Macro
$61.61
-
"Software stocks broadly, the entire complex kind of has fallen back to where they were last April. To me, that's clearly an overreaction... start to see some of the groups that got hit hard mean revert, including the Mag-7." The market has aggressively punished high-growth tech and AI names recently. These valuations have reset to attractive levels, suggesting the selling is exhausted and a technical bounce is imminent. LONG Magnificent 7 (MAGS) and Software (IGV) for a mean-reversion trade. Continued sector rotation out of tech if inflation fears persist.
Mar 02
Long
Crypto
$16.61
-
"What's happening so much is being built on Ethereum now... If it's all taking place on Ethereum then price follows." Lee draws a parallel between economic activity (GDP) and asset prices. High developer activity and tokenization on the Ethereum network are fundamental drivers that will eventually force the price of the asset up, regardless of current "crypto winter" sentiment. LONG Ethereum (via ETHE trust/ETF) based on network utility. Regulatory crackdowns or capital continuing to favor hard assets like Gold over digital assets in the short term.
Mar 02
Long
Macro
$89.74
-
Alternative inflation data (Truflation) suggests official CPI will fall significantly in the coming months, which would be bullish for long-duration bonds as yields would likely decrease.
Feb 23
Long
AI/Semi
$398.46
-
The largest insider buy in over a decade, especially after a 15% YTD decline, is a strong signal of management's confidence in the company's future prospects.
Feb 19
Long
AI/Semi
$61.84
-
"Rotation back to the mag 7... the mag 7 have gotten cheaper than the bullet makers, which has never happened in 10 years. They're three PE points discount." A historical valuation anomaly has occurred where the largest tech platforms are cheaper than the hardware suppliers ("bullet makers"). Mean reversion suggests capital will rotate back into the Mag 7 as the "cheaper" growth play. LONG the Magnificent Seven to exploit this rare valuation discount. Continued rotation into defensive sectors or small caps ignoring the tech valuation gap.
Feb 18
Long
AI/Semi
$80.96
-
Scott Wapner suggests AI is a "shooting gallery" taking down software stocks. Lee counters: "To me, I think what we're seeing is that there is a payoff coming from AI... It ultimately is productivity." The market consensus is currently fearful that AI will replace traditional software (SaaS) companies, leading to a sell-off. Lee argues the "Second-Order Effect": AI is actually a tool that these companies will integrate to drastically improve their own productivity and product value. The current bearish sentiment on software is a mispricing of this productivity boom. LONG. Buy the software dip caused by AI fears, betting on the productivity realization. If AI adoption slows or if "Hyperscalers" stop spending (as noted by the host), the productivity thesis may be delayed.
Feb 12
Long
Macro
$396.88
-
1. THE FACT: Silver ($SLV) has been parabolic in the past month, and Gold ($GLD) has been parabolic in the past year. Gold moves typically lead crypto.
2. THE BRIDGE: The strong parabolic moves in large commodity markets like silver and gold, which historically lead crypto, suggest that one should not be skeptical of digital assets in 2026.
3. THE VERDICT: Long digital assets (ETH, BTC) in 2026, following the strong performance of gold and silver.
Dec 31
Long
Macro
$609.34
-
1. THE FACT: "Nov CPI released this am - Core CPI YoY 2.6% vs 3.0% - massive 0.40bp undershoot. Inflation falling like a rock🪨. Positive YE rally: - equities $SPY $IWM $QQQ - crypto Bitcoin and Ethereum $BTC $ETH"
2. THE BRIDGE: Lower-than-expected CPI data (inflation falling) is presented as a catalyst for a positive year-end rally in equities (SPY, IWM, QQQ) and crypto (BTC, ETH).
3. THE VERDICT: Falling inflation (CPI undershoot) will drive a year-end rally in broad equities and major cryptocurrencies.
Dec 18
Long
Macro
$249.85
-
1. THE FACT: "Nov CPI released this am - Core CPI YoY 2.6% vs 3.0% - massive 0.40bp undershoot. Inflation falling like a rock🪨. Positive YE rally: - equities $SPY $IWM $QQQ - crypto Bitcoin and Ethereum $BTC $ETH"
2. THE BRIDGE: Lower-than-expected CPI data (inflation falling) is presented as a catalyst for a positive year-end rally in equities (SPY, IWM, QQQ) and crypto (BTC, ETH).
3. THE VERDICT: Falling inflation (CPI undershoot) will drive a year-end rally in broad equities and major cryptocurrencies.
Dec 18
Long
Other
$40.73
-
1. THE FACT: "This does make real estate look attractive"
2. THE BRIDGE: The tweet implies that some unstated factor (likely related to the previous tweet's context, though not explicitly stated here) makes real estate an attractive investment.
3. THE VERDICT: Real estate is an attractive investment.
Dec 17
Long
Crypto
$0.53
-
1. THE FACT: "Worldcoin @worldcoin @tfh_technology have arguably built the best technology to verify proof of human. This is the reason $WLD is one of the most important projects in crypto @sama"
2. THE BRIDGE: Worldcoin's technology for proof of human verification is highlighted as superior, making WLD an important crypto project.
3. THE VERDICT: WLD is a key crypto project due to its strong underlying technology.
Dec 15
Long
Crypto
$29.14
-
1. THE FACT: Fundstrat states, "This is the reality in crypto Near a bottom, but as my friend Eric S says, bottoms are ‘ugly’."
2. THE BRIDGE: While acknowledging that bottoms can be volatile and unpleasant, the core message is that crypto assets are "near a bottom." This suggests that current price levels are close to the lowest point before a potential recovery, making them attractive for accumulation despite potential short-term choppiness.
3. THE VERDICT: Crypto is near a bottom, indicating a buying opportunity despite potential short-term volatility.
Nov 19
Long
Crypto
$96017.20
-
1. THE FACT: Fundstrat suggests the weakness in crypto has all the signs of a market maker with a major "hole" in their balance sheet, leading to sharks circling to trigger liquidation/dumping of prices. However, they also state, "Is this pain short-term? Yes. Does this change the $ETH supercycle of Wall Street?"
2. THE BRIDGE: While acknowledging short-term pain due to market maker issues and potential liquidations, Fundstrat maintains a long-term bullish view on the "ETH supercycle" and implies the current weakness is temporary. This suggests an opportunity to buy on dips for long-term holders.
3. THE VERDICT: Current crypto weakness is short-term and driven by market maker issues, but the long-term bullish "ETH supercycle" remains intact, presenting a buying opportunity.
Nov 15
Long
Crypto
$3196.63
-
1. THE FACT: Fundstrat suggests the weakness in crypto has all the signs of a market maker with a major "hole" in their balance sheet, leading to sharks circling to trigger liquidation/dumping of prices. However, they also state, "Is this pain short-term? Yes. Does this change the $ETH supercycle of Wall Street?"
2. THE BRIDGE: While acknowledging short-term pain due to market maker issues and potential liquidations, Fundstrat maintains a long-term bullish view on the "ETH supercycle" and implies the current weakness is temporary. This suggests an opportunity to buy on dips for long-term holders.
3. THE VERDICT: Current crypto weakness is short-term and driven by market maker issues, but the long-term bullish "ETH supercycle" remains intact, presenting a buying opportunity.
Nov 15
Showing 26 of 26 picks
Ticker posts
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