Best trades
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Worst trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
24 eval.
+7.5%
L +7.5%
S +8.4%
Win rate
62%
30 days
14 eval.
+6.5%
L +6.5%
S -
Win rate
43%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
AI/Semi
$137.11
-
Long FORM for continued growth driven by AI probe card share gains, HBM4 ramp (20% premium over HBM3E), and CPO testing commercialization; upcoming Investor Day on May 11 is a key catalyst.
May 02
Long
AI/Semi
$0.95
-
Long Advantest as Teradyne's acknowledgment of its CPO testing capabilities suggests Advantest may gain market share amid the CPO industry transition.
May 01
Long
AI/Semi
$342.61
-
Long TER for long-term AI and CPO testing growth; near-term transition limits catalysts, but $381 target offers upside from current levels.
May 01
Short
AI/Semi
$414.50
-
Short Broadcom as Google shifts to a disaggregated ASIC model with MediaTek, removing Broadcom’s margin advantage and reducing its role in Google’s TPU supply chain.
Apr 30
Short
AI/Semi
$177.49
-
Short QCOM due to evidence that Apple's on-device AI ambitions are constrained by memory limitations, undermining Qualcomm's edge AI narrative and making a near‑term rebound unlikely.
Apr 29
Short
Photonics
$7.76
-
Short POET due to alleged failure to disclose a Marvell contract termination in a timely manner, raising legal and reputational risks that could pressure the stock.
Apr 27
Long
AI/Semi
$2450.00
-
MediaTek's TPU redesign completion and massive CoWoS allocation signal strong AI chip demand, with analyst raising target price and reiterating Buy rating.
Apr 27
Long
AI/Semi
$944.50
-
Long SNDK on upgraded Buy rating and $1,277 price target, expecting strong FY3Q26 results and guidance driven by accelerating NAND ASP growth (70% to 90–100%) and consumer electronics upside.
Apr 24
Long
AI/Semi
$729000.00
-
Long Samsung Electro-Mechanics as it is uniquely positioned to benefit from both the ABF substrate and MLCC supercycles, driving future revenue and earnings growth.
Apr 21
Long
AI/Semi
$54.91
-
Long GlobalFoundries and ASE as they are positioned as the key PIC manufacturer and packager for AMD's MI500 CPO architecture.
Apr 19
Long
AI/Semi
$28.91
-
Long GlobalFoundries and ASE as they are positioned as the key PIC manufacturer and packager for AMD's MI500 CPO architecture.
Apr 19
Long
Photonics
$11.60
-
Long LPKF as the end of Absolics' exclusive agreement with F&S Electron opens the door for Chemtronics, which exclusively uses LPKF equipment, driving additional sales.
Apr 19
Long
AI/Semi
$356.00
-
Buy TSMC as the market incorrectly prices in a Q1 margin peak, presenting an opportunity to fade misguided sellers.
Apr 16
Long
Photonics
$2815.00
-
Buy Largan Precision as a key beneficiary of Apple's planned >5% iPhone production increase in 2027, which should drive higher component demand and revenue for the supplier.
Apr 16
Long
Other
$322.50
-
Go long Yageo as the company's first price hikes for MLCC product lines in response to rising raw material costs signal the start of a new industry supercycle.
Apr 15
Long
Other
$2081.00
-
Buy Unitika as surging E-glass prices, driven by high-end PCB demand for AI servers, will significantly boost the company's stock price.
Apr 15
Long
AI/Semi
$369.80
-
Buy Microsoft as current negative sentiment mirrors the overly pessimistic views on Google during its Bard launch, presenting a compelling contrarian entry point.
Apr 13
Long
AI/Semi
$127.11
-
The author is taking a personal long position in Qualcomm, citing a recent change in their view based on listening to others, though the specific fundamental or technical reasoning is not provided.
Apr 09
Long
AI/Semi
$883000.00
-
SK Hynix is securing long-term DRAM supply agreements with prepayments from major AI hyperscalers, which reduces revenue volatility and locks in demand during an AI-driven shortage, making the stock a long.
Apr 05
Long
Consumer
$252.86
-
Apple is aggressively buying mobile DRAM to drive up memory prices and create shortages for competitors, leading to significant market share gains.
Apr 02
Long
AI/Semi
$47.97
-
The author interprets Intel's financial move to repurchase a key asset as a strong signal of internal confidence and improving fundamentals, specifically in its core CPU segment, which is bullish for the stock.
Apr 01
Long
AI/Semi
$178.95
-
Samsung is likely to increase orders for BESI's hybrid bonding equipment because the competing in-house SEMES tool is currently less mature.
Mar 31
Long
Macro
$634.09
-
The author is committing to following Bill Ackman's bullish market bottom call, based on Ackman's track record and view that high-quality businesses are cheap.
Mar 30
Long
AI/Semi
$1369.00
-
Micron's strategic shift towards EUV technology will directly benefit the primary EUV equipment supplier, ASML.
Mar 19
Long
AI/Semi
$398.23
-
A key product (HBM4) for a major memory manufacturer (SK Hynix) is expected to pass qualification, removing a technical overhang for the company and its sector.
Mar 10
Long
NatSec
$326500.00
-
The author believes Hanmi will benefit from the likely relaxation of HBM thickness standards, which makes its existing TC bonder technology more cost-effective and viable for future HBM generations (HBM5) than previously anticipated hybrid bonding solutions.
Mar 06
Long
Photonics
$2322.50
-
The author is initiating a long position in Hamamatsu Photonics, signaling a bullish view by committing capital to the stock.
Mar 03
Long
AI/Semi
$319.55
-
Broadcom's scalable business model, where IP development costs are distributed over a growing customer base, is expected to drive margin improvement.
Feb 28
Long
Macro
$148.89
-
A long position in the South Korean market (via EWY as a proxy for Samsung) is attractive due to a valuation disconnect, as Samsung's future profit potential is not reflected in its current market cap.
Feb 25
Long
AI/Semi
$199700.00
-
The trade is a long on Samsung based on a Citi forecast for massive 2026 profit growth driven by a cyclical surge in DRAM and NAND prices.
Feb 24
Long
AI/Semi
$213.84
-
The author is bullish on AMD, citing a research note that raises the price target to $308 based on CPU price increases from supply constraints and strong server demand.
Feb 24
Long
AI/Semi
$38.58
-
The author predicts that as AI-driven wage deflation erodes consumer purchasing power, capital will shift towards industrial automation, making it a key growth area.
Feb 23
Long
AI/Semi
$420.97
-
Channel checks suggest NVIDIA's future Rubin CPX product will pivot to using HBM memory, which would be a significant positive demand catalyst for HBM suppliers like Micron.
Feb 23
Showing 34 of 34 picks
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