Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
38 eval.
+0.9%
L +0.9%
S -
Win rate
61%
30 days
22 eval.
-2.1%
L -2.1%
S -
Win rate
36%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Closed-window returns from the first opened position per ticker/side.
90d = picks opened 90+ days ago
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Consumer
$264.72
+6.6%
"It is the Mag-7 that once again are coming to the rescue... If there is ultimately an equity safe haven, those names once again prove themselves." During geopolitical uncertainty, investors are not fleeing to cash/bonds exclusively; they are treating cash-rich, dominant tech monopolies as "safe assets" to park capital, effectively using them as a proxy for safety. LONG. These stocks are acting as the market's defensive backstop. Valuation compression if yields spike significantly.
Mar 02
Long
AI/Semi
$396.86
+3.1%
"Hyperscalers, the big four, they're increasing their capex by 40% year on year... They will put a tangible product in the hands of consumers." While questioning the efficiency of the spend, Terranova contrasts these firms against Apple, implying they are the ones actively building the Generative AI future and delivering tangible utility to consumers, whereas Apple is retrenching. LONG (Relative strength vs AAPL). Over-spending on CapEx without immediate ROI ("Is all this spending actually necessary?").
Feb 17
Long
AI/Semi
$302.02
+30.2%
"Hyperscalers, the big four, they're increasing their capex by 40% year on year... They will put a tangible product in the hands of consumers." While questioning the efficiency of the spend, Terranova contrasts these firms against Apple, implying they are the ones actively building the Generative AI future and delivering tangible utility to consumers, whereas Apple is retrenching. LONG (Relative strength vs AAPL). Over-spending on CapEx without immediate ROI ("Is all this spending actually necessary?").
Feb 17
Long
AI/Semi
$182.48
+7.4%
"It is the Mag-7 that once again are coming to the rescue... If there is ultimately an equity safe haven, those names once again prove themselves." During geopolitical uncertainty, investors are not fleeing to cash/bonds exclusively; they are treating cash-rich, dominant tech monopolies as "safe assets" to park capital, effectively using them as a proxy for safety. LONG. These stocks are acting as the market's defensive backstop. Valuation compression if yields spike significantly.
Mar 02
Long
Other
$459.56
-9.2%
"I think the fundamentals and the tailwinds of this debasement [are still there]." The physical value of the metals is rising significantly (evidenced by the cost of Olympic medals doubling or tripling in two years). The speaker views the current price action as a pause in a longer-term uptrend driven by currency devaluation. LONG Reduced central bank demand or a decrease in industrial demand for silver.
Feb 19
Long
Consumer
$689.42
-22.8%
Joe Terranova named Ulta Beauty as his final trade. The company recently announced its first store opening in the United Arab Emirates on Jan. 29. The entry into a new international market represents a tangible catalyst for long-term growth. This expansion story can attract investors looking for companies with new avenues for revenue and earnings, potentially leading to a higher valuation multiple. A long position is based on a clear strategic growth initiative. The international expansion narrative provides a forward-looking reason to own the stock beyond its domestic performance. International expansion carries significant execution risk and upfront costs. The success in the UAE market is not guaranteed and may take a considerable amount of time to contribute meaningfully to overall profits.
Feb 18
Showing 15 of 38 picks ยท sorted by mentions
Ticker posts
Choose a mentions count to open ticker posts.