Short SLNH due to extreme dilution of $1B against a $197M market cap and a $500M ATM sold into the market, indicating severe shareholder value destruction.
Long SIVEF as the upstream semiconductor supplier for the US space buildout via CHIPS Act backing, the Allspace acquisition by prime contractor YSS, and connection to Golden Dome.
Long TOWA as a forgotten monopoly in compression modeling for HBM4; expects re-rating driven by rising memory maker capex. Earnings catalyst on May 11 (Tokyo time).
Long Win Semiconductor (3105.TW) — speaker discloses 'my other long' and frames it as a dependable foundry for AVGO and SpaceX/Hyperscaler supply chains, de-risking the broader photonics thesis.
Long Shunsin, Fittech, and Win Semi as the recent correction is normal volatility with no fundamental change, maintaining bullish view on these Taiwanese stocks.
Long ASMC as a direct beneficiary of the Defense Production Act due to its exposure to advanced conductors and power control electronics; its grid segment should also see tailwinds.
Long ONTO as the primary metrology partner for mass production of glass cores via LIDE technology, which is essential for scaling next-generation substrates.
Long LPKFF because it owns the key LIDE technology for glass substrates and has multi-bagger potential given its small market cap and proprietary position in an emerging field.
Long LPKK/LPK as they are a critical bottleneck supplier for glass core substrates used in laser induced deep etching (LIDE), positioning them to benefit from advanced packaging adoption.
This list is stacked.
Going equal weight long on the entire $GFS CPO/Photonics supply chain would make a great ETF.
Here's the list:
$GFS - $30.5B MC
$CDNS - $85.99B
$SIE.DE - $217.2B
$SNPS - $84B
$KEYS - $57.3B
Advantest (6857) - $130.4B
RoboTechnik (ficonTEC) - $11.4B
Senko (9069) - $2.1B
$GLW - $141.2B
$FN - $24.7B
$ASE - $63.3B
$LITE - $63.8B
$SIVE - $860M
It's interesting most of the publicly listed companies in the tens or hundreds of billions...
Expect for one name or
Long GLW as the industry leader in glass core substrates, a critical component for next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging. The commercialization timeline is accelerating, with a major inflection point expected in 2027.
Buy PCL Technologies as it serves as the primary assembly, optical, and testing provider within the Broadcom photonics ecosystem, providing a catalyst for the stock to potentially double.
Buy Nippon Chemical (4092) as it represents a severely undervalued, critical supply chain bottleneck for Western hyperscaler buildouts, controlling the high-purity red phosphorus market needed for InP substrates.
The author is bullish on $NEXT as a multi-year long investment due to its sold-out capacity and the positive attention expected for the LNG sector, with production starting in 2027.
The market is significantly underpricing the fundamental impact of ARM's new AGI CPU, which is projected to add $15B in annual revenue and effectively multiply the company's current top line.
The author posits a long-term long on AI-related equities as a necessary hedge against widespread job displacement, arguing that productivity gains from AI will drive corporate profits and accrue to shareholders.
The author is long TSEM, anticipating a significant catalyst from Nvidia's GTC event next week related to new photonic architecture, citing TSEM's leading supplier status and prior collaboration with NVDA.
A contrarian bet against consensus bullishness on oil is to go long US airliners, and the JETS ETF offers a better risk/reward through lower implied volatility on its options compared to individual airline stocks.
The author recommends buying SK Hynix, believing the recent dip is an overreaction as fears about energy imports are overblown, while the fundamental tailwind of rising NAND and DRAM prices remains strong.
The market may have overreacted to a recent misleading negative report from Bloomberg, as the key bullish catalyst of the OpenAI partnership remains intact.
The company is positioned as a critical bottleneck in the AI supply chain due to its dominant market share in InP substrates, essential for future AI hardware.
Geopolitical conflict is proving Bitcoin's core use case as a censorship-resistant, self-custodial asset for capital flight, which could drive demand outside of traditional western speculation.
The author views Soitec as a superior long-term holding due to its defensible characteristics, contrasting it with more speculative momentum plays in the sector.
The author sees Nvidia's strategic pursuit of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) as a positive fundamental driver, suggesting strength in their forward-looking strategy.
The author advocates for a long-term position in $RKLB based on its technology in reusable rockets and the perceived "infinite" total addressable market in the space industry.
The author expects Soitec to re-rate significantly higher due to its functional monopoly on photonics-soi substrates, a key component for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology set to inflect in 2028.
Long Macronix as the best NOR Flash exposure: 33-35% market share with smaller MC; speaker names it as one of the two best pure-play exposures into the NOR Flash hike cycle alongside Winbond.
The author believes Spotify's position as the dominant music distribution platform will remain secure against the threat of AI music generation tools, as creators will still need to use Spotify to reach audiences.
The author implies IQE is a key upstream supplier of epi-wafers in the high-growth photonics supply chain for Google's TPUs, positioning it for significant upside similar to a previous successful call on AXTI.
The author is taking a long position on a major index via LEAP call options, anticipating both a rise in the underlying index and an expansion in implied volatility from 47% to ~55%.
The stock is considered significantly undervalued on a multi-year horizon, despite being potentially overextended in the short term due to market front-running.
The author expects volatility in the South Korean market (EWY) to increase beyond what options markets are currently pricing, driven by the introduction of new high-leverage DeFi products on its key constituents.
The author recommends a long-term bullish position on utilities via options, betting on a paradigm shift in electricity demand from AI data centers and historically low implied volatility.
A potential conflict with Iran would severely disrupt the global pistachio market, where Iran is a major producer, directly benefiting US-based competitor JBSS due to the duopoly structure.
The author is long SIMO as a play on the NAND market, citing the company's duopoly position in merchant controllers and its role as a key supplier to all major industry players.
This new quantum computing IPO is an attractive long as it appears undervalued relative to peers like IONQ and RGTI, offering a pure-play on a specific quantum technology.
The author suggests a long position in Raspberry Pi ($RPI), arguing that its small market capitalization makes it more sensitive to the positive impact of mass product hoarding by hobbyists compared to a mega-cap like Apple.
A short thesis on Palantir is flawed because it mischaracterizes the company's unique position as a government/defense AI contractor by comparing it to standard B2B software firms.
1. THE FACT: Wolfspeed ($WOLF) is described as the "holy grail of AI with SiC wafers" and recently produced the world's first 300mm single-crystal SiC wafer.
2. THE BRIDGE: NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin architecture will likely require these advanced 300mm SiC interposers. Wolfspeed's technological lead and manufacturing capability position it as a critical, and potentially sole-source, supplier for this essential AI hardware component.
3. THE VERDICT: Long Wolfspeed as a key upstream supplier and technology leader in the SiC wafer space, a critical input for future AI accelerators.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Buy" list of tickers, covering a range of sectors including crypto, AI infrastructure, internet, and optical components.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a direct list of buy recommendations. While conviction may be slightly lower than the "Strong Buy" list, it represents a belief in positive upside for these specific names.
3. THE VERDICT: A diversified basket of "Buy" rated stocks across various growth-oriented sectors.
Short BMNR - Avoid listing with explicit short framing: dilution machine funding illiquid projects, paired with long ETH staking ETFs as a directional pair trade.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker provides a "Strong Buy" list of tickers, primarily focused on technology, semiconductors, and related materials/ETFs.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is an explicit, high-conviction list from a tech-focused analyst. The grouping suggests a belief in the continued strength of the AI, semiconductor, and mobile hardware themes.
3. THE VERDICT: A basket trade of "Strong Buy" rated stocks, primarily levered to the semiconductor and AI supercycle.
1. THE FACT: The speaker highlights nLight ($LASR) as a company that builds directed energy weapons ("Death Ray") capable of shooting down ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
2. THE BRIDGE: In a world with increasing geopolitical tensions, advanced defense technology like directed energy weapons is likely to see increased government interest and funding. LASR is positioned as a key player in this futuristic defense niche.
3. THE VERDICT: Long LASR as a speculative play on next-generation defense technology and increased geopolitical risk.
1. THE FACT: The speaker claims $MU is analogous to $NVDA when it was a $400B company. They highlight a low forward P/E of ~11.6 despite projections of 133% Y/Y revenue growth and 319% Y/Y EPS growth.
2. THE BRIDGE: The market is incorrectly viewing memory as a short-term cycle, but AI has fundamentally broken that cyclicality, creating a "memory supercycle." The stock has not yet been fully re-rated to reflect this new paradigm.
3. THE VERDICT: Long $MU as it is undervalued relative to its growth prospects within the AI-driven memory supercycle, presenting a significant re-rating opportunity.
1. THE FACT: The speaker identifies $VPG as their top stock in the robotics sector and suggests the market is just beginning to notice it.
2. THE BRIDGE: The current situation is compared to the early stages of other major tech rallies, like $SNDK in memory or $SMCI in AI infrastructure. The speaker believes this is an inflection point for the humanoid robotics industry.
3. THE VERDICT: Long $VPG as an early-stage investment to gain exposure to a potential secular growth trend in robotics and humanoids.
1. THE FACT: The speaker states that $INTC is one of the most asymmetrical long opportunities in the semiconductor sector.
2. THE BRIDGE: The thesis is based on the principle of not betting against strong White House backing, which provides a significant tailwind and favorable risk/reward setup for the company.
3. THE VERDICT: Long $INTC as an asymmetric bet, with the primary catalyst being significant and explicit U.S. government support.