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Feb 18
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SHORT
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Dina Titus
Democratic Congresswoman (Nevada)
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Titus states, "This shutdown really hurts Nevada if you don't have TSA... TSA is going to start missing paychecks... the 1st of March." She notes morale is already low and warns of the impact on tourism. If the shutdown persists past March 1st, TSA absenteeism (sick-outs) will likely spike as agents go unpaid. This causes airport bottlenecks, reducing leisure travel volume, specifically hurting flight demand to tourism hubs like Las Vegas. Short US Travel/Airlines ahead of the March 1st deadline as operational friction risks increase. A last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) is passed, averting the pay stoppage. |
Bloomberg Markets
Dems, GOP Locked in Standoff Over ICE Reform,...
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Feb 12
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AVOID
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Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
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"We're looking at the coast guard, FEMA, and TSA" being impacted by the shutdown, while ICE is shielded. The TSA falls under DHS. During past shutdowns, unpaid TSA agents have staged "sick-outs" (blue flu), causing massive airport security delays. This directly impacts airline efficiency, passenger sentiment, and short-term booking volumes. AVOID or SHORT the travel sector (Airlines/Booking) going into the weekend risk of a TSA slowdown. The shutdown might be resolved hours before the deadline, causing a relief rally in travel stocks. |
Bloomberg Markets
Schumer Threatens to Block DHS Funding, Raisi...
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Feb 11
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WATCH
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Senator Markwayne Mullin
Republican Senator from Oklahoma
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"The only thing that the Democrats have shut down right now is our TSA agents... when people started to see those delays at the airport, they really get fed up." While 97% of the government is safe, TSA falls into the 3% "unfunded" bucket. If the CR fails, TSA agents may stage "sick-outs" (as seen in previous shutdowns), causing immediate friction for airlines and travel stocks. Additionally, the unexplained 10-day closure of the El Paso airport adds a layer of idiosyncratic security risk. WATCH. Monitor the Friday deadline closely; if the CR stalls, expect immediate turbulence in airline bookings/operations. CR passes immediately, negating the thesis. |
CNBC
Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: N...
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