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Feb 18
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LONG
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Louise Dudley
Portfolio Manager, Federated Hermes
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Dudley states Europe is "cheaper than US" and specifically that the "UK... is relatively more attractive than the rest of Europe." Valuation disparity offers a safety margin. Specifically, UK companies with global revenue exposure (not just domestic UK economy) offer growth at a discount compared to US peers. LONG UK EQUITIES and EUROPEAN EQUITIES as a value rotation play away from expensive US tech. Persistent economic stagnation in Germany or sticky inflation in the UK preventing rate cuts. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Talks 'Progress' & Lagarde Reported t...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Ben Gutteridge
Market Insights Strategist, Invesco
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UK valuations are discounted relative to global peers. The BoE is pivoting to cuts. Lower rates usually support equity valuations. The UK offers "life-like" businesses (Energy, Mining, Tobacco) at a discount, providing a hedge against the high-valuation tech concentration in the US. LONG UK Equities for diversification and value catch-up. The UK economy enters a deep recession rather than a soft landing; political instability returns. |
Bloomberg Markets
Anthropic’s Pentagon Talks Snag, Pound Falls ...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Adam
Market Strategist / Guest
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"I think March is basically locked in... I think 50 basis points by year end is relatively reasonable. I think the data today was unambiguously dovish." Dovish wage data confirms inflation is cooling, clearing the path for the BoE to cut rates. Lower rates reduce discount rates for equities and directly boost bond prices (Gilts). LONG UK assets (Bonds/Equities) on confirmed rate cut cycle. Inflation re-accelerates or the BoE remains more hawkish than the market prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
UK Jobs Data Gives Green Light to March BOE C...
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Feb 14
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SHORT
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Luigi de Vecchi
Chairman, Capital Markets, Citigroup EMEA
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Landesberg notes a "shift towards Milan even before the [UK] non-dom thing was really fully announced." De Vecchi adds that people are moving out of London and Paris due to tax and stability concerns. The UK's removal of the non-dom tax status is acting as a push factor, causing capital flight. As HNWIs relocate their tax residency to Italy, liquidity drains from the London prime property and equity markets. SHORT. London loses its premium status as the default European hub for global capital. Reversal of UK tax policies or a sudden hike in Italian flat tax rates (elections next year). |
Bloomberg Markets
Why The Ultra Rich Are Moving to Milan
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Feb 13
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WATCH
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Alexandra Ivanova
Fund Manager, IFI Europe Team at Invesco
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"At the long end, I feel like it will be quite volatile... good levels to get back in [on selloffs]." The recent 100-year bond issuance shows demand, but volatility is expected due to heavy supply and political uncertainty (UK budget/elections). The strategy is not to chase rallies but to wait for volatility to provide better entry points. WATCH (Buy the dip). Fiscal slippage in the UK drives yields significantly higher, devaluing long-duration assets. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Fear Drives Rout & Goldman Lawyer Quits Ov...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Scott Wapner
Host, CNBC
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Scott Wapner cites data showing international markets (Israel, Brazil, Japan, UK) "trounced" the U.S. trade last year. He notes that PIMCO and Amundi are explicitly pivoting away from U.S. assets due to "unpredictable policies" and valuation gaps. The U.S. market's dominance has forced global competitors to adopt shareholder-friendly reforms (like Japan's corporate governance changes). As major asset managers reallocate capital to these cheaper, reforming markets to diversify political risk, international indices will capture the flow. LONG International/EM indices to capture the rotation. U.S. exceptionalism continues; global geopolitical instability. |
CNBC
How to play the "sell U.S." trade
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Sharon Bell
Goldman Sachs
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Bell notes US markets are expensive and concentrated. Europe offers exposure to "Old Economy" sectors (Industrials, Materials) and trades at lower valuations (UK at 13.5x PE). As investors seek diversification away from the US Dollar and US Tech concentration, flows will move to cheaper, cyclical markets like Europe and the UK. LONG Europe/UK as a valuation and currency diversification play. European economic growth remains stagnant compared to the US. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/12/2026
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