US-Iran Talks 'Progress' & Lagarde Reported to Leave ECB Early | Daybreak Europe 02/18/2026
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 18, 2026 at 08:04 UTC  |  46:37  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Oliver Crook — Anchor, Bloomberg
Mark Cranfield — Strategist, Bloomberg Markets Live
Paul Wallace — Reporter, Bloomberg (Geopolitics/Oil)
Light Speed Partner — Venture Capital Investor (Light Speed Venture Partners)
Louise Dudley — Portfolio Manager, Federated Hermes
Bernard Mensah — President of International, Bank of America

Summary

  • US markets are facing a potential rotation out of the "Mag 7" as investors digest massive AI capex against slowing momentum; seasonality in late February is historically weak for the S&P 500.
  • Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) has significantly trimmed positions in Amazon, Apple, and Bank of America, rotating capital into Healthcare (specifically AstraZeneca).
  • A "SaaS Apocalypse" is a growing concern among VCs; AI is expected to erode the pricing power of generic software companies, turning them into mere data storage rather than premium services.
  • Geopolitical tensions with Iran are seeing "cautious progress," keeping a floor under oil prices but removing the immediate "imminent strike" premium.
  • India is emerging as a massive "demand-side" story for AI, supported by its public digital infrastructure (UPI), making it a key growth market for tech deployment.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
AZN
LONG Oliver Crook
Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg
13F filings reveal Berkshire Hathaway has been "buying into AstraZeneca" while simultaneously slashing stakes in major US tech and financials. When the "Oracle of Omaha" rotates out of cyclical consumer/tech names into defensive healthcare, it signals a shift toward safety and undervaluation in the pharma sector. LONG AZN as a copy-trade of Berkshire's defensive rotation. Drug pipeline failures or regulatory pricing pressure in the pharmaceutical sector. 26:27
AVOID Oliver Crook
Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg
Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Amazon by more than 745% (likely meant shares or basis points, but the sentiment is heavy selling), and also trimmed allocations in Apple and Bank of America. Institutional capitulation by a major long-term holder suggests these assets may be fully valued or facing headwinds that retail investors haven't priced in yet. AVOID or TRIM exposure to align with smart money outflows. These companies continue to compound earnings despite Buffett's exit, forcing a chase. 25:43
AVOID Mark Cranfield
Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
"Magnificent tech stocks... have been struggling a bit recently... investors are already starting to move their chips around and are taking some of it away from the Mag 7 names." Combined with the historical fact that the "second half of February... has traditionally been pretty bad for the S&P," the setup favors a tactical pullback or rotation out of crowded mega-cap tech trades. SHORT or AVOID MAG-7 during the weak seasonal window of late February. A surprise blowout earnings report from NVIDIA (mentioned as the next catalyst) could reverse the rotation immediately. 3:40
SHORT Light Speed Partner
Venture Capital Investor (Light Speed Venture Partners)
The VC investor explicitly mentioned a "SaaS apocalypse" and stated that "growth rates that justified premium multiples on SaaS businesses... may no longer hold." AI is commoditizing software interfaces. If software becomes just "data storage" while AI agents handle the work, the per-seat pricing models of legacy SaaS companies will collapse. SHORT generic SAAS SECTOR companies that lack proprietary data moats. Companies successfully pivoting to AI-integrated models faster than expected.
LONG Louise Dudley
Portfolio Manager, Federated Hermes
While broader tech is volatile, Dudley notes that for "Cyber securities... the backlog [is] very secure. These companies are going to be only more in demand." Unlike discretionary software which faces the "SaaS apocalypse," security is non-discretionary. As AI threats rise, corporate spend on defense (Cybersecurity) becomes sticky and essential, decoupling it from the general tech rotation. LONG Cybersecurity leaders (implied tickers CRWD / PANW) as a defensive growth play. High valuations in the sector leave little room for earnings misses.
LONG Louise Dudley
Portfolio Manager, Federated Hermes
Dudley states Europe is "cheaper than US" and specifically that the "UK... is relatively more attractive than the rest of Europe." Valuation disparity offers a safety margin. Specifically, UK companies with global revenue exposure (not just domestic UK economy) offer growth at a discount compared to US peers. LONG UK EQUITIES and EUROPEAN EQUITIES as a value rotation play away from expensive US tech. Persistent economic stagnation in Germany or sticky inflation in the UK preventing rate cuts.
LONG Bernard Mensah
President of International, Bank of America
Bank of America's executive highlights India as the "world's third largest digital economy" with "great rails" (UPI) and a massive population ready for AI adoption. While the West focuses on building AI (Capex), India is positioned to be the massive "demand side" consumer of these tools, driving productivity and economic growth without the same labor-displacement fears seen in the West. LONG INDIA as a structural emerging market growth story. Regulatory changes or infrastructure bottlenecks slowing down digital adoption. 12:37