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Feb 18
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SHORT
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Light Speed Partner
Venture Capital Investor (Light Speed Venture Partners)
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The VC investor explicitly mentioned a "SaaS apocalypse" and stated that "growth rates that justified premium multiples on SaaS businesses... may no longer hold." AI is commoditizing software interfaces. If software becomes just "data storage" while AI agents handle the work, the per-seat pricing models of legacy SaaS companies will collapse. SHORT generic SAAS SECTOR companies that lack proprietary data moats. Companies successfully pivoting to AI-integrated models faster than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
US-Iran Talks 'Progress' & Lagarde Reported t...
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Feb 17
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NEUTRAL
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Sitara Sundar
Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
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The market is shifting from "SaaS" to "Service as Software." Seat-based pricing models are at risk as AI agents reduce headcount. Software companies relying on "per-seat" pricing will suffer as companies hire fewer people due to AI efficiency. The winners will be "usage-based" models and infrastructure layers (Hyperscalers/Utilities) that power the AI itself. Avoid legacy seat-based SaaS; Long usage-based/infrastructure software. AI adoption slows, preserving the legacy seat-based model longer than expected. |
Bloomberg Markets
Open Interest 2/17/2026
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Feb 17
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SHORT
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"The market is absolutely priced in. SAS is in shambles. The market is absolutely not priced in. Code is a commodity." Traditional SaaS companies rely on the moat of proprietary code and high development costs. If AI allows anyone to generate enterprise-grade software instantly ("100% of code... written by AI"), the pricing power and moats of legacy software companies collapse. SHORT or AVOID traditional software companies whose value proposition is based on code scarcity. Regulatory capture or data moats protecting incumbents despite the commoditization of code. |
Thread Guy
Why AI Is Taking Over ALL Coding Jobs..
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Feb 16
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SHORT
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Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
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The "AI Scare Trade" has expanded from software to physical industries. The US Trucking Index and Logistics sector saw massive price drops, driven by the perception that AI tools will disrupt their business models. The market is currently pricing in "AI displacement" risk. If a sector is viewed as an "AI Victim" (like SaaS last week, Logistics this week), capital flees rapidly regardless of immediate earnings, creating downward momentum. SHORT / AVOID sectors currently in the crosshairs of the "AI Scare" narrative (Logistics, Trucking, Legacy SaaS). The selloff may be an overreaction/panic selling, presenting a value trap if fundamentals remain strong. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
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Feb 14
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AVOID
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Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101
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"We saw huge amounts of selling and the SAS stocks and even some wealth management stocks... perceived to be disrupted by AI." The speaker validates the market's fear by confirming that AI *does* replace service jobs (editing, legal research, wealth advising). If AI can perform "white collar" tasks (like tax efficiency strategies or contract editing) cheaper than humans or legacy software, these specific sectors face margin compression and revenue loss. Avoid sectors where AI is a direct substitute for the core service product. These companies successfully integrate AI to upsell rather than being replaced by it. |
Joseph Wang
Markets Weekly February 14, 2026
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Feb 14
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AVOID
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Steve Woo from Bloomberg comes on stream and says, 'SAS companies aren't dead'... And I ask him, 'Steve, have you ever used OpenClaw?' And he's like, 'No... Why would I do that?'... You're a step behind." Traditional SaaS and the analysts defending it are failing to adapt to the new "Agentic" workflow (AI doing the work vs. humans using software). If the "smart money" (Bloomberg analysts/MDs) isn't using the new tools, they are mispricing the disruption risk to legacy "System of Record" companies. AVOID. Prefer the disruptors (AI Agents) over the disrupted (Legacy SaaS). Enterprise adoption of AI agents may be slower than expected (as noted by the PE MD anecdote in the transcript), keeping Legacy SaaS sticky for longer. |
Thread Guy
Why The AI Boom Might Be A Bubble?
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Feb 13
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SHORT
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Annabel Drillers
Asia Tech Correspondent, Bloomberg
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A small company, Algorithm Holdings, claimed 300-400% efficiency gains using AI, sparking a sell-off in the Russell 3000 trucking index (e.g., Landstar System). Commercial real estate (CBRE) and SaaS stocks are also being sold indiscriminately. The market narrative has shifted from "Who wins from AI?" to "Who is displaced by AI?" Investors are pricing in "zero or negative growth" for sectors where AI agents can replace human headcount (reducing office demand) or seat-based software licenses. SHORT sectors vulnerable to AI deflationary pressure. The sell-off is described as "indiscriminate" and potentially exaggerated, leaving room for a sharp mean-reversion rally if earnings hold up. |
Bloomberg Markets
How AI Is Proving to Be a Double-Edged Sword ...
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Feb 13
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AVOID
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Alex Finn
AI Content Creator / Expert
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"Salesforce was scarce because it was very difficult to build... now with AI... there is no more scarcity in software." Finn states he can ask his AI to build software replacements instantly. The investment thesis for SaaS relies on "moats" built on code complexity and switching costs. If an AI agent can replicate a CRM or design tool (like Figma) in hours for free, these companies lose their pricing power and recurring revenue justification. Avoid legacy "System of Record" SaaS companies like CRM whose primary value proposition is being eroded by AI-generated software. Enterprise inertia keeps companies on legacy platforms longer than expected due to compliance/security. |
Thread Guy
AI Is 6 Months From Replacing ALL Jobs (Alex ...
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Feb 12
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SHORT
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Clare Pleydell-Bouverie
Tech Investor / Panelist
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"We think the market is really only just starting to price in the transition from Software 1.0... to Software 2.0... What we don't think yet is priced in is the margin compression... because AI software, there are actual real marginal costs to this." The last decade of SaaS investing was based on "write once, sell infinitely" with near-zero marginal costs (90% gross margins). AI Agents require heavy compute for every action. As software companies integrate AI to stay relevant, their cost of goods sold (COGS) will skyrocket, compressing valuations that were based on 90% margins. Short incumbent software companies with high valuations that are forced to pivot to high-cost AI models. Incumbents successfully monetize AI features at a premium that outpaces compute costs. |
CNBC
Panel weighs AI disruption, margin pressure a...
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Feb 09
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AVOID
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Ali Ghodsi
CEO, Databricks
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Traditional "System of Record" software companies (SaaS) are facing a "wipeout" scenario similar to the dot-com bust if they do not adapt immediately. These companies historically relied on two moats: a) The Interface Moat: Humans were trained on complex UIs, making switching costs high. AI Agents now use natural language, rendering the UI irrelevant. b) The Database Moat: Moving data was hard. New "Lakehouse" architectures allow AI agents to query data anywhere, breaking vendor lock-in. If a company charges based on "seats" (human users), their revenue will collapse as one AI agent replaces 10,000 human users. Databricks sees 80% of new databases being built by AI agents. Investors are privately questioning the efficiency and survival of traditional SaaS metrics behind closed doors. Incumbents with massive distribution might successfully pivot by integrating AI fast enough to protect their revenue base. |
CNBC
Under the hood of the AI economy: Databricks ...
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Feb 09
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AVOID
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Ali Ghodsi
CEO, Databricks
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Traditional SaaS companies rely on two moats: the User Interface (users are trained on it) and the Database (hard to migrate). Ghodsi argues both are evaporating. AI Agents interact with software via natural language, making the proprietary User Interface irrelevant. Furthermore, AI can easily restructure and migrate data, breaking the "lock-in" of the database. Companies that rely on "seat-based pricing" (charging per human user) will face a revenue collapse as one AI agent replaces 10,000 human users. Investors are privately questioning the efficiency of these SaaS companies. "Lazy" companies protecting existing revenue streams rather than innovating will be "wiped out." Some legacy companies may successfully pivot and integrate AI to lower their own costs, surviving the transition. |
CNBC
Preparing for another tech wipeout: Databrick...
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Feb 04
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SHORT/AVOID
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Thread Guy
Crypto Commentator / Streamer
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Since the release of Claude Code on Feb 24, 2025, software stocks are down minimum 15-20%. Mando states his team has already replicated paid SaaS tools using Claude Code and cancelled subscriptions. The market is realizing that "Seat-based" B2B software pricing models are obsolete. AI agents (like Claude) can replicate the utility of these platforms without the recurring revenue per user. This is a fundamental repricing of the entire sector. SHORT or AVOID. The "uncertainty" in this sector is structural, not cyclical. Oversold bounce; AI integration by these legacy companies stabilizes churn. |
Thread Guy
Crypto has CRASHED. Is it OVER? Will it bounc...
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