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Feb 18
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LONG
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Shaun Lee
Co-founder of OSN (Open Stable Network)
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"Trade flows... are shifting predominantly from the west to the east primarily coming from China to ASEAN countries... as well as to the UAE." The macroeconomic trend is moving away from Western-centric trade corridors toward an intra-Asian and Middle Eastern bloc. As volume grows in these corridors (UAE-Philippines, China-ASEAN), the underlying economies and their payment volumes will outperform Western counterparts. LONG. Capitalize on the macro rotation of capital and goods into these specific regions. Geopolitical escalation in the South China Sea or Middle East disrupting these specific trade routes. |
CoinDesk
OSN Opens a New Blockchain Payment Rail Betwe...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Simon Williams
Chief Economist, HSBC
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Williams states regarding Egypt: "Hard to find a better story... Inflation is coming down... Big improvement in overall balance of payments." He notes foreign investors are returning due to the FX rebalancing. With the US Dollar weakening (mentioned as a positive for EM) and structural reforms taking hold, Egypt represents a deep value recovery play within the broader EM basket. LONG Egyptian assets (likely via bonds or broad EM ETFs with exposure). Failure to secure the next tranche of IMF funding or geopolitical spillover from Gaza/Israel. |
Bloomberg Markets
Futures Slip Ahead of US Return; Iran-US Talk...
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Feb 16
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LONG
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Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
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Rubio states, "If you face financial struggles... I know that President Trump will be very interested... to finding ways to provide assistance." This is an explicit geopolitical backstop (a "sovereign put option"). The US is effectively removing the tail risk of a Hungarian financial crisis or sovereign debt collapse. When the world's reserve currency issuer guarantees a smaller nation's stability, the risk premium on that nation's assets collapses, driving equity valuations higher. LONG Central/Eastern European exposure via broad EM or International funds. Deterioration of US-EU relations could isolate Hungary within the European block, counteracting US support. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Says US, Hungary Are Entering 'Golden E...
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Feb 16
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LONG
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Mitul Kotecha
Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy, Barclays
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EM currency volatility has been below DM volatility for nearly 200 days. Inflows are hitting local currency bond markets. In a "yield-starved" world where the Fed is slow to cut, investors seek carry. Latin American currencies offer high carry (high interest rates) combined with historically low volatility, creating a superior risk-adjusted return compared to low-carry Asian currencies. LONG High Carry EM (LatAm) vs. Low Carry DM. A sudden spike in the US Dollar or a global risk-off event would spike volatility and unwind the carry trade rapidly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bitcoin Traders Brace for $60K Shock as Liqui...
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Feb 16
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LONG
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Paul Dobson
Executive Editor, Bloomberg
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Commodity market strength is lifting currencies in Latin America and Australia. Volatility in these markets is subdued compared to developed markets. The combination of a potentially weaker USD (due to Fed cuts back on the table) and strong commodity prices creates a "winning prospect" for carry trades and resource-linked currencies. LONG Emerging Market currencies and AUD. A resurgence in US inflation forcing the Fed to hold rates, strengthening the USD. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan Posts Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Sp...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Kathy Jones
Chief Strategist, Charles Schwab
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Kathy Jones notes a "diversification away from the US" and that investors are moving into markets that "have more potential to do better," specifically citing Emerging Markets. Alex Wolfe confirms a pickup in flows into Europe and Japan. The US Dollar is softening (or rangebound), and the Fed is easing (albeit slowly). A weaker dollar historically boosts Emerging Markets and non-US equities as capital rotates out of crowded US trades seeking better valuations. LONG non-US assets to capture the capital rotation. A resurgence in US inflation forcing the Fed to hike, strengthening the USD. |
Bloomberg Markets
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes I...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Paula / Saurabh
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"Inflation appearing to be under control... RBI is expected to remain on hold... likely to be upward revisions to the GDP estimate." A "Goldilocks" scenario of low inflation (2.75%), upward GDP revisions, and stable interest rates makes India a standout within Emerging Markets. This macro stability attracts foreign capital flows into the broader Indian index. LONG. Global oil price shocks could disrupt India's trade balance and inflation outlook. |
Bloomberg Markets
India’s New Inflation Basket Explains India’s...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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"Over in Latin America, the market's up 20% this year." The narrative isn't just "Asia is good," but rather "US is bad relative to the world." Investors are seeking returns in emerging markets (LatAm) which are significantly outperforming US indices. LONG Emerging Markets (specifically Latin America) to capture the rotation away from the US dollar and US equities. Currency volatility in emerging markets or a strengthening US Dollar (DXY). |
Bloomberg Markets
S&P 500 Erases Year’s Gains, Asia Prospers: 3...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Swati Gupta
South Asia Government Reporter, Bloomberg
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A "large percentage of the fighter jets are getting manufactured in India," which requires "approvals for technology transfer" and government collaboration. This deal is not just an import expense but a capital investment in India's domestic economy. The requirement to manufacture locally ("Make in India") will drive industrial activity, upgrade local technology standards, and strengthen India's manufacturing sector. Long India/Emerging Markets as the economy benefits from increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and industrial technology transfers. Execution risk regarding the absorption of complex military technology and manufacturing quality control. |
Bloomberg Markets
India Greenlights 40 Billion Upgrade to Its A...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Scott Wapner
Host, CNBC
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Scott Wapner cites data showing international markets (Israel, Brazil, Japan, UK) "trounced" the U.S. trade last year. He notes that PIMCO and Amundi are explicitly pivoting away from U.S. assets due to "unpredictable policies" and valuation gaps. The U.S. market's dominance has forced global competitors to adopt shareholder-friendly reforms (like Japan's corporate governance changes). As major asset managers reallocate capital to these cheaper, reforming markets to diversify political risk, international indices will capture the flow. LONG International/EM indices to capture the rotation. U.S. exceptionalism continues; global geopolitical instability. |
CNBC
How to play the "sell U.S." trade
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Ashu Khullar
CEO, Citi India (Implied based on context of Citi India leadership and "Paul" as interviewer)
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Gross FDI into India remains robust ($80-90bn/year). The government is aggressively pursuing "China + 1" manufacturing policies and trade deals with the EU and US. Despite "rich valuations" causing some capital repatriation, the structural inflows into manufacturing and infrastructure (supported by Western trade deals) underpin a long-term growth story for the Indian economy. Long Emerging Markets with a specific overweight on India to capture the manufacturing renaissance and consumption growth. "Rich valuations" in Indian equities could lead to a correction; Net FDI outflows if global rates remain high. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Expects India Investment Boost From Trad...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Raj Subramaniam
CEO and President of FedEx
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"Supply chain patterns are changing everywhere... We've made significant moves in Osaka, Japan... Vietnam... India... Riyadh... Chile." FedEx is front-running the "China Plus One" manufacturing shift. By investing heavily in infrastructure in Vietnam, India, and Saudi Arabia, they are signaling where the next decade of manufacturing output will originate. Investors should allocate to these specific emerging markets as beneficiaries of global supply chain re-routing. LONG. Focus on the specific beneficiaries of supply chain diversification (India/Vietnam/Saudi Arabia). Geopolitical instability in emerging markets; currency fluctuations. |
CNBC
FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam: We are undergoing ...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Bill Ford
Chairman, Ford Motor Company
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"Investors would be really going to be missing out if they're not active in China... China, as the second largest economy... is a center for innovation in lots of areas like green technology." While many Western investors are uninvestable in China due to geopolitics, General Atlantic is maintaining its exposure, citing innovation (Green Tech) and the necessity of global diversification to manage US-specific macro risks. Contrarian Long on Global Innovation (specifically China/Emerging Markets). Escalation of US-China trade restrictions or sanctions. |
Bloomberg Markets
.General Atlantic CEO Ford on Current Investi...
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Feb 03
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SHORT
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Michael Burry
Substack author, Cassandra Unchained
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Burry highlights the widespread and growing problem of severe childbirth injuries due to a profound lack of access to basic emergency medical care in poor, rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. He explicitly notes a "growing need" for certain interventions. This indicates deep-seated systemic issues, including underdeveloped healthcare infrastructure, pervasive poverty, and potentially governance failures, which are fundamental impediments to long-term economic development and social stability in these regions. Burry's "Cassandra" moniker suggests he sees overlooked fragility that could manifest as future underperformance. Shorting or avoiding broad-market ETFs or companies with significant, undifferentiated exposure to the general economic health or stability of these specific emerging markets, as the underlying social and health crises suggest higher unpriced risks and lower long-term growth potential than commonly assumed. Philanthropic efforts or unexpected government reforms could improve conditions faster than anticipated; commodity booms could temporarily boost economies despite social issues; other global macro factors could overshadow regional problems. |
Cassandra Unchained
February 2026 Cassandra Unchained Charity of ...
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