.General Atlantic CEO Ford on Current Investing Landscape, Risks and Strategy

Speakers

Bill Ford — CEO, General Atlantic

Summary

General Atlantic maintains a 50/50 capital allocation split between US and Non-US investments, citing geopolitical volatility as a driver for increased global diversification rather than retrenchment.
Predicts 2025 will be the "most active M&A market in a decade," driven by a pro-business US administration, stabilizing interest rates, and the end of the "exit recession" for private equity.
Argues that Software valuations have fully normalized (resetting from 12x revenue peaks back to historical 4x averages), creating a durable entry point.
Characterizes AI as a "Super Cycle" with "infinite demand" for the next 4-5 years, validating the massive Capex spend by Hyperscalers.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
BX /KKR /GS /MS	LONG	Bill Ford Chairman, Ford Motor Company	"We had an exit recession for the private equity industry... I think M&A is going to come back in a significant way... it's going to be the most active M&A market we've seen in a decade." Private Equity firms (BX, KKR) have been unable to sell portfolio companies ("exit recession"). A boom in M&A unlocks massive liquidity, performance fees (carry), and capital deployment. Investment Banks (GS, MS) will capture the advisory fees from this surge in deal flow. Long Alternative Asset Managers and Capital Markets. Interest rates rising unexpectedly could freeze deal financing again.	—
IGV /SOFTWARE SECTOR	LONG	Bill Ford Chairman, Ford Motor Company	"Ten years ago, software companies were valued at about four times revenue... they went all the way up to 10 to 12 times... they've come back down to where they were about four times revenue." The valuation bubble in SaaS has burst, returning multiples to historical norms. However, the business models remain "durable" and critical. This suggests the downside risk is priced in, while the business quality remains high. Buy the valuation reset in Enterprise Software. AI agents potentially replacing "seat-based" SaaS pricing models.	—
MAG-7 /HYPERSCALERS	LONG	Bill Ford Chairman, Ford Motor Company	"There's almost infinite demand... for the next four or five years... [Tech giants] are moving from an asset light cash flowing business model to really put all our chips on the table." The market fears "AI Capex bubbles," but Ford argues the demand side ("intelligence on demand") is so strong that this spending is rational and necessary. The "Super Cycle" view implies the infrastructure build-out is just beginning. Long the AI Infrastructure spenders. ROI on AI Capex takes longer to materialize than the market expects.	—
INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES /EMERGING MARKETS /KWEB	LONG	Bill Ford Chairman, Ford Motor Company	"Investors would be really going to be missing out if they're not active in China... China, as the second largest economy... is a center for innovation in lots of areas like green technology." While many Western investors are uninvestable in China due to geopolitics, General Atlantic is maintaining its exposure, citing innovation (Green Tech) and the necessity of global diversification to manage US-specific macro risks. Contrarian Long on Global Innovation (specifically China/Emerging Markets). Escalation of US-China trade restrictions or sanctions.	—