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Feb 18
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LONG
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Tyler Kendall
Multimedia Editor
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Japan is investing $36 billion specifically into US "oil, gas, and critical mineral projects," including a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export hub in Texas. This represents a massive, government-mandated capital injection directly into the US energy and industrial base. The "45-day" funding requirement ensures this liquidity hits the market rapidly rather than being delayed by bureaucracy. The construction of the "largest" gas facility in the US will drive significant revenue for infrastructure builders and energy service providers in these regions. LONG US Energy Infrastructure and Critical Minerals sectors as the direct recipients of this inbound FDI. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approval could stall the deployment of funds; the 90/10 profit split long-term is less favorable for the Japanese investors, potentially reducing their incentive to manage efficiently post-recoupment. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan, US Reach $36 Billion Gas, Mineral Proj...
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Feb 18
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LONG
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Laura Davison
Washington Bureau Chief
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Japan is investing $36 billion into US projects immediately, specifically a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico. This is part of a larger $550B trade deal to avoid tariffs. This is state-directed capital injection into specific US infrastructure assets. The "synthetic diamonds" investment specifically links energy to the semiconductor supply chain. Direct bullish catalyst for US energy infrastructure and critical mineral processors receiving this FDI. Execution delays; the deal requires money to flow within 45 days, which is aggressive. |
Bloomberg Markets
Geneva Diplomacy: US-Iran Hail Progress in Nu...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Long rare earth metals is a really good one... China's critical mineral control, sheer dominance... The US can't produce any." China controls the supply chain for the physical materials needed to build chips and defense tech. If geopolitical tensions rise, China could restrict exports (as they have threatened), causing a supply squeeze. The US must desperately invest in securing these "Atoms" to compete. Long as a hedge against Chinese supply dominance and a play on the "Bits to Atoms" thesis. Geopolitical de-escalation or new supply chains coming online slowly. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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Thread Guy cites Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's prediction that AI revenue could hit $1 trillion by 2030 (up from ~$14B currently). If software revenue scales to $1 trillion, the physical infrastructure required to support it must grow exponentially. This is the "Bits to Atoms" trade: longing the hardware, memory, and raw materials that exist *now* to power the future. LONG the "picks and shovels" of AI: Compute (NVDA), Memory (MU, WDC), and the raw materials (Rare Earths). AI scaling laws hit a wall; over-investment in capex leads to a bubble burst before revenue materializes. |
Thread Guy
The Bear Market is OVER. Stocks are about to ...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Giver
Macro Analyst (Thread Guy guest)
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The Giver argues that AI's true utility isn't replacing executive assistants (human connection), but replacing "dangerous jobs" like mining, power line repair, and landscaping. As the US pushes for industrial independence (the "Atoms" thesis), labor shortages in dangerous/physical sectors will drive investment into robotics and the critical minerals required to build them. This aligns with the administration's focus on hard assets over financial engineering. Long sectors that automate physical labor and the commodities required to build that automation. Technological bottlenecks in robotics; regulatory hurdles. |
Thread Guy
We Predicted Crypto's FUTURE in 2026 (The Giv...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Eirik Lie
CEO of Kongsberg Defense (Incoming CEO of Kongsberg Group)
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"Basically your defense is only as secure as your supply chains are... meeting every single week about rare earth metals to make sure they have the supply." Second-Order Thinking: You cannot have a defense boom without a raw materials boom. If every major defense contractor is stockpiling "12 months of supplies" (as noted regarding Rheinmetall), this creates an artificial demand shock for critical minerals and rare earths upstream. LONG. Defense demand acts as a non-cyclical floor for rare earth prices, decoupling them slightly from general industrial demand. China export controls or new mining supply coming online faster than anticipated. |
Bloomberg Markets
Kongsberg Says Demand for Air Defense Systems...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Giver
Macro Analyst / Guest
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The Trump administration is focused on "making America independent" regarding supply chains. Thread Guy explicitly mentions buying TSM. The "Bits to Atoms" trade is the macro expression of AI requiring physical infrastructure. The bottleneck for AI supremacy is not just code, but energy, chips, and the raw materials (minerals) to build them. Trump's policies favor domestic resilience and friendly manufacturing partners. Long the physical layer of the AI stack. Geopolitical escalation (China/Taiwan) disrupts the supply of "atoms" before domestic capacity is ready. |
Thread Guy
The Financial Market Is About To Change FOREV...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Doug Burgum
US Secretary of the Interior
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The US is establishing a "Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve" (private sector funded, $10B loan/$2B equity) and creating a "club of nations" with price floors to stop Chinese dumping. The administration is explicitly backing domestic mining ("Mine, Baby, Mine") and protecting price stability for miners against China's dominance. This creates a government-backed floor for the sector. LONG US Mining / Critical Minerals. China retaliating with export bans or aggressive undercutting before price floors take effect. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026
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Feb 07
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LONG
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Host, All-In Podcast / CEO, Social Capital
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President Trump's "Project Vault" establishes a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, backed by $10 billion from EXIM Bank and private capital, to counter China's dominance and secure supply chains. This includes bilateral agreements with 11 countries. This initiative creates a stable price floor and guaranteed demand for non-Chinese critical mineral sources. Government funding and international partnerships will de-risk investments in mining, processing, and refining outside of China, leading to |
Chamath Palihapitiya
SpaceX-xAI Merger: The $1.25T Company
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