| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Giver
Macro Analyst (Thread Guy guest) |
The Trump administration is focused on "making America independent" regarding supply chains. Thread Guy explicitly mentions buying TSM. The "Bits to Atoms" trade is the macro expression of AI requiring physical infrastructure. The bottleneck for AI supremacy is not just code, but energy, chips, and the raw materials (minerals) to build them. Trump's policies favor domestic resilience and friendly manufacturing partners. Long the physical layer of the AI stack. Geopolitical escalation (China/Taiwan) disrupts the supply of "atoms" before domestic capacity is ready. | 117:57 | |
| AVOID |
Giver
Macro Analyst (Thread Guy guest) |
The market has rejected the "17th L2." Previous cycles of high-FDV altcoins and diluted memecoins have left investors fatigued. There is no organic demand for generic blockspace or governance tokens that offer no differentiation. The market has "solved" crypto and realized most projects are unnecessary. Without a specific narrative (like AI agents), these assets have no bid. Capital will concentrate in leaders (BTC) or new narratives (AI), leaving zombie chains to bleed. A sudden return of "Alt Season" liquidity driven by retail mania, though Giver views this as unlikely in the current regime. | 145:13 | |
| WATCH |
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent |
BlackRock announced buying Uniswap (the token and equity) in this timeline. The price pumped 40% and then immediately retraced. Even the most bullish news possible (BlackRock adoption) is failing to sustain price action in "legacy" DeFi tokens. This indicates extreme market exhaustion and a lack of new liquidity entering these specific assets. Watch for a trend change, but currently, the market is fading even high-quality news events. Regulatory clarity allows a fee-switch or institutional integration that drives sustained value accrual. | 67:31 | |
| LONG |
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent |
Stripe announced payments on Base for AI agents; Coinbase launched "Agentic Wallet" allowing bots to hold identity and transact without humans. The crypto industry is pivoting from "human users" to "agent users." As AI agents (like OpenClaw) proliferate, they require permissionless, 24/7 payment rails. This creates a massive new Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the infrastructure providers (Coinbase/Base) that service these machine-to-machine transactions. Crypto gets "bailed out" by the AI boom. Long the infrastructure facilitating agent payments. AI developers bypass crypto rails for traditional fintech solutions if regulation stifles adoption. | 72:04 | |
| LONG |
Giver
Macro Analyst (Thread Guy guest) |
Bitcoin is down ~50% from its highs (in this 2026 timeline), suffering from a "hangover" where demand was pulled forward by ETFs and corporate buying (MicroStrategy). Despite the drawdown, there is nothing systemically wrong with the asset. It acts as a "sponge for excess dollars." With the Fed (Kevin Warsh) potentially cutting rates while trying to shrink the balance sheet, BTC remains the primary liquidity gauge. Expect a reversion to the mean; price could reclaim $80k-$90k in the next 6 months as the "hangover" clears. Kevin Warsh's policy of draining liquidity actually works, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets longer than expected. | 7:19 |