The author argues that recent sharp declines in software stocks were driven by a technical, reflexive feedback loop linked to their private credit/debt, but believes this pressure is temporary. He has expanded his analysis to include payment stocks and identifies one unnamed company ranking highly in his universe based on compensation, AI competitiveness, and earnings valuation.

{ "tldr": { "summary": "The author argues that the recent deep sell-off in software stocks is driven by temporary technical factors related to software credit. Believing this downward pressure is nearing its end, the author has initiated long positions in select software companies.", "key_points": [ "Reflexivity between software credit and software stocks caused a deep sell-off recently.", "This technical factor driving down valuations is temporary.", "The software credit side is not large enough to sustain the downward pressure much longer.", "The author initiated long positions in ADBE, ADSK, and VEEV." ] }, "trade_ideas": [ { "ticker": "ADBE", "direction": "LONG", "confidence": 0.75, "sentiment": 0.70, "quote": "Today I committed to a low normal position in each of ADBE and ADSK.", "thesis": "Software stock valuations have been driven down by a temporary technical factor related to software credit, creating a buying opportunity as the downward pressure exhausts itself.", "instrument": "shares", "timeframe": "medium-term" }, { "ticker": "ADSK", "direction": "LONG", "confidence": 0.75, "sentiment": 0.70, "quote": "Today I committed to a low normal position in each of ADBE and ADSK.", "thesis": "Software stock valuations have been driven down by a temporary technical factor related to software credit, creating a buying opportunity as the downward pressure exhausts itself.", "instrument": "shares", "timeframe": "medium-term" }, { "ticker": "VEEV", "direction": "LONG", "confidence": 0.75, "sentiment": 0.70, "quote": "I bought a slightly larger position in VEEV.", "thesis": "Software stock valuations have been driven down by a temporary technical factor related to software credit, creating a buying opportunity as the downward pressure exhausts itself.", "instrument": "shares", "timeframe": "medium-term" } ] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry announces a format change for his trading updates, renaming them to Trading Post to avoid overloading readers with alerts. He mentions that by late 2026, clarity will emerge on his previously outlined investment theses, suggesting a wait-and-see approach to market developments.", "key_points": [ "Burry has updated the newsletter format from Trading Alerts to Trading Post, emphasizing no spam.", "He anticipates that by late 2026, there will be clarity on his past investment theses.", "The article is primarily an administrative update with no detailed market analysis or positions disclosed." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry discloses his ongoing short position in Palantir via put options, indicating persistent bearish sentiment based on accounting and valuation concerns. This trade alert highlights his view that Palantir is overvalued, which could signal caution for investors in the stock.", "key_points": [ "The author has been short Palantir since the fall using put options.", "He currently owns specific puts: June 17 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and December 19, 2026 Strike Price 100 Puts.", "He is not selling these positions today, maintaining his short stance.", "The position references previous articles where he criticized Palantir's accounting and valuation." ] }, "trade_ideas": [ { "ticker": "PLTR", "direction": "SHORT", "confidence": 0.75, "sentiment": -0.70, "quote": "I have been short Palantir since the fall through puts... I now own the June 17 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and the Decembers 19, 2026 Strike Price 100 Puts. I am not selling these today.", "thesis": "The author is short Palantir based on previous analysis of its accounting and valuation, as expressed in referenced articles.", "instrument": "puts — June 17 2027 Strike Price 50 Puts and December 19, 2026 Strike Price 100 Puts", "timeframe": "medium-term to long-term" } ] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "The article announces the launch of a new 'Trade Alerts' feature for paid subscribers of Cassandra Unchained, designed to provide timely and secure notifications of Dr. Burry's actual trades. This matters for markets as it offers subscribers direct access to his trading positions, which could influence investment decisions and market sentiment.", "key_points": [ "Introduction of a 'Trade Alerts' feature to exclusively distribute Dr. Burry's trades to paid subscribers via email.", "Focus on improving timeliness and security of trade notifications to enhance subscriber experience.", "Encouragement for subscribers to upgrade to paid for access to trade alerts, topical chat discussions, and original research.", "Adaptability to market extremes by providing additional information in alerts when opportunities arise." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry announces the Joyful Heart Foundation as the April 2026 charity of the month, detailing its programs to support survivors of violence and abuse. The article is purely philanthropic, with no mention of financial markets or investment positions, reflecting Burry's personal advocacy rather than trading insights.", "key_points": [ "Joyful Heart Foundation is selected as the charity for April 2026, with 5% of Substack revenues donated.", "Founded by actress Mariska Hargitay to address abuse and support survivors.", "Program 'Heal the Healers' provides resources for professionals dealing with secondary trauma.", "Program 'End the Rape Kit Backlog' works to legislate funding for testing all rape kits.", "Program 'Image-Based Initiative' aims to combat image-based abuse through comprehensive legislation.", "Burry shares personal connections, including a tragic anecdote about image-based abuse." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry critiques GAAP accounting for failing to capture true owners' earnings due to corporate manipulation, and introduces a new methodology to adjust GAAP earnings for stock-based compensation, specifically applied to the NASDAQ 100 index and its components.", "key_points": [ "GAAP principles are inadequate for determining owners' earnings, enabling companies to manipulate financial reporting.", "Successful investors have long used bespoke mental models to adjust GAAP earnings for factors like revenue recognition and cash definitions.", "Burry presents a novel theory and methodology to adjust GAAP earnings for stock-based compensation, focusing on the NASDAQ 100 index.", "The article emphasizes the need for intrinsic value-based models in investing, rather than relying solely on standard accounting." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry reflects on the psychological difficulty of holding value investments through severe drawdowns, noting that spectacular recoveries often require enduring immense pain. He explicitly discloses that he is currently buying shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, viewing them as incredibly cheap despite their recent declines.", "key_points": [ "Holding through severe market drawdowns is psychologically taxing but historically necessary to capture spectacular recoveries.", "Value investors often face the danger of catching 'falling knives' when buying deeply discounted stocks.", "Burry explicitly confirms he is buying both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at their current depressed levels." ] }, "trade_ideas": [ { "ticker": "FMCC", "direction": "LONG", "confidence": 0.65, "sentiment": 0.70, "quote": "Yes, I have been buying down here - both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.", "thesis": "The author views the stock as an incredibly cheap common stock that has suffered a severe drop, and believes holding through the pain will eventually lead to a spectacular recovery.", "instrument": "shares", "timeframe": "long-term" }, { "ticker": "FNMA", "direction": "LONG", "confidence": 0.65, "sentiment": 0.70, "quote": "Yes, I have been buying down here - both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.", "thesis": "The author views the stock as an incredibly cheap common stock that has suffered a severe drop, and believes holding through the pain will eventually lead to a spectacular recovery.", "instrument": "shares", "timeframe": "long-term" } ] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "The article announces The Headstrong Project as the Charity of the Month for March 2026, highlighting its mission to provide mental health treatment to veterans with efficiency and high impact. Michael Burry expresses personal support for veterans causes and encourages readers to donate. This piece has no relevance to financial markets, as it is purely a charitable appeal with no discussion of investments or trading positions.", "key_points": [ "The Headstrong Project offers confidential, barrier-free PTSD and mental health treatment to veterans, service members, and their families.", "The charity has a rapid intake process, with patients hearing back within two days and starting treatment within two weeks.", "It operates with low management expenses (7%) and has a 100% rating from Charity Navigator for Accountability & Finance.", "The author, Michael Burry, has a history of supporting veterans, including hiring them during his time as a money manager.", "Cassandra Unchained donates 5% of its March revenues to The Headstrong Project and urges readers to contribute.", "The charity has provided over 250,000 mental health sessions since inception, with 97% patient retention and 91% reporting improved quality of life." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry presents a bearish perspective on the U.S. market, challenging the widespread excitement around AI and elevated stock valuations. He references his previous critical analyses of Palantir and warns of failed expectations, suggesting underlying overvaluation concerns.", "key_points": [ "Burry is skeptical of the AI-driven market euphoria and believes stock valuations are excessively high.", "He has written bearish articles on Palantir, indicating specific company-level concerns.", "He warns of failed expectations and overvaluation in the broader market.", "He mentions tracking an unspecified metric related to market structure, but details are not provided in this excerpt." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry critiques Large Language Models (LLMs) by drawing on a historical case study from 1880, arguing that true understanding requires reason before language, which LLMs lack. He parallels this with historical speculation cycles in San Francisco, suggesting current AI investments may mirror past bubbles. The article is analytical and does not disclose any personal trading positions.", "key_points": [ "Presents a 1880 case study of Melville Ballard, a deaf-mute who demonstrated complex thought without language, to challenge the foundation of LLMs.", "Argues that LLMs prioritize language over reason, leading to a 'parameter trap' of brute-force processing without true understanding.", "Connects this to medical expertise, where understanding transcends logic and is communicated non-verbally, such as through eye expression.", "Highlights a conversation with Klarna's CEO on compression and 'System 2' reasoning as a path to reduce compute needs in AI.", "References historical speculation in San Francisco, where boom-bust cycles were driven by excessive investment beyond demand.", "Draws parallels between past speculation and modern Silicon Valley's AI spending, suggesting potential for similar bubbles.", "Recommends midjourney as a creative tool for image and video generation, but this is unrelated to financial trades.", "Emphasizes that understanding transcends language, and LLMs' lack of true reason limits their capability." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry reflects on his past intensive investing in Asia, particularly Hong Kong and China, starting in 2003, highlighting the entrepreneurial energy and rapid growth he witnessed then. He contrasts that with the present, implying significant changes in the market landscape, which matters for investors understanding historical cycles and structural shifts in Asian economies.", "key_points": [ "Burry was deeply involved in Asian markets from 2003, with a fully staffed Hong Kong office, during a period of post-SARS-Cov-1 recovery and growth.", "He owned Tencent at HK$6 in the past and observed the Hang Seng Index rally from 8,300 to 31,000 by 2007, driven by optimism and opportunity in China.", "The article suggests that the China and Asia he experienced then are fundamentally different today, indicating evolving market dynamics and potential caution for current strategies." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry analyzes Nvidia's financials, highlighting a troubling increase in purchase obligations to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion year-over-year, driven by TSMC's demands for long-term contracts and cash. He argues this reflects structural risks as Nvidia commits to non-cancellable orders before demand is known, potentially ratcheting up financial and operational risk.", "key_points": [ "Nvidia's purchase obligations surged to $95.2 billion in 2026, up from $16.1 billion, due to TSMC requiring longer-term contracts for custom fabrication capacity.", "These obligations are non-cancellable and placed before demand is known, indicating a structural shift rather than a temporary issue.", "Inventory grew 8% quarter-over-quarter, with purchase commitments increasing significantly, as Nvidia secures inventory and capacity further out than usual.", "The author suggests this trajectory heightens risk for Nvidia, similar to past spikes in Days Inventory Outstanding and Cash Conversion Cycle from external shocks." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry analyzes Palantir's 10-K filing, highlighting that accounts receivable has grown faster than revenue in 9 of the last 12 quarters, suggesting potential accounting issues like channel stuffing or aggressive revenue recognition.", "key_points": [ "Palantir's accounts receivable (AR) growth has outpaced revenue growth persistently, which is a red flag for accounting quality.", "This pattern is often linked to nefarious practices such as channel stuffing, aggressive revenue recognition, or extended payment terms used as sales concessions.", "In true subscription businesses, AR growth should track revenue growth closely; volatility or outgrowth indicates sales are being booked faster than cash is collected." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "Michael Burry reflects on the leadership and culture of Palantir Technologies, drawing from a biography that reveals CEO Alex Karp's disconnect with engineers and Peter Thiel's psychological insights. The article appears to set the stage for a critical analysis of Palantir's business, but no trading positions are disclosed in the provided excerpt.", "key_points": [ "The article references a book about Palantir that highlights CEO Alex Karp's unconventional management style and his disconnect with engineers.", "Burry shares his personal appreciation for Peter Thiel and relates to the idea of doing things 'the hard way'.", "The text suggests the article will critically examine Palantir's technology and business, but the excerpt does not include any market or trade analysis." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{ "tldr": { "summary": "This article is a charity announcement where Michael Burry promotes the Fistula Foundation, highlighting its work in treating obstetric fistulas and perineal tears in developing regions. It does not discuss any market trends, investments, or trading positions, and thus has no direct relevance to financial markets.", "key_points": [ "The Fistula Foundation provides life-changing surgeries for women suffering from obstetric fistulas and severe perineal tears in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.", "The Foundation has performed over 100,000 surgeries since 2009 and operates in 36 countries.", "Michael Burry and his wife have been long-time donors to the charity and are re-engaging with it.", "The Foundation has received high ratings from Charity Navigator (100%) and Charity Watch (A grade).", "Cassandra Unchained will donate 5% of its revenue from February 2026 to the Fistula Foundation." ] }, "trade_ideas": [] }

{
  "tldr": {
    "summary": "The author notes a busy earnings season and significant market developments but states the rapid pace of 24-hour trading and volatility makes detailed writing challenging before situations change. The article serves as a preamble indicating the author will share some fully-formed thoughts but primarily provides 'quick hits' without detailed analysis.",
    "key_points": [
      "Earnings season is active with numerous market developments warranting comment.",
      "The 24-hour trading cycle and current volatility make it difficult to publish in-depth analysis before conditions shift.",
      "The author has some fully-formed thoughts but will largely rely on 'quick hits' for this update."
    ]
  },
  "trade_ideas": []
}