Intervenção histórica pra segurar os juros

Смотреть на YouTube ↗  |  19 августа 2026, 20:55  |  19:48  |  Fernando Ulrich
Спикеры
Fernando Ulrich — Финансовый обозреватель, независимый
Fernando Ulrich analyzes the US Treasury's August 19 announcement that it will double longer-dated Treasury buyback operations, interpreting it as de facto yield curve control and a regime shift toward financial repression. He explains the fiscal backdrop: US debt near $40 trillion, deficits near $2 trillion, rising interest expense, and resumed Fed QE. He argues the policy is designed to weaken the dollar and cap long yields, with market reactions including lower Treasury yields, a falling DXY, stronger BRL/CNY/JPY, and sharp rallies in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He concludes that scarce real assets should benefit from secular fiat debasement. - US Treasury doubles long-dated buyback operations from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation. - Ulrich sees this as de facto yield curve control, not debt reduction or QE. - US debt near $40tn, deficit around $1.95tn, interest expense above $1.2tn. - The Fed has resumed balance-sheet expansion of at least $40bn per month. - DXY fell below 98.8; USD/BRL reversed to 5.17; USD/CNY strengthened to 6.729. - Gold, silver, and Bitcoin rallied sharply on the announcement. - The policy fits a Trump/Bessent plan to weaken the dollar and cap long rates. - Conclusion: financial repression favors scarce real assets over fiat currency.
Идеи
Fernando Ulrich Финансовый обозреватель, независимый 0:10
Scarce real assets outperform fiat debasement
The announcement triggered a sharp rally in scarce real assets: gold rose about 4% to around $4,500/oz, silver rose almost 5% above $66, and Bitcoin rose 5.4% above $68,000, touching $69,700, partly amplified by short covering. Ulrich argues this is not just a one-day move but a secular trend: central banks can create fiat money at will, while gold, silver, and Bitcoin are scarce and cannot be inflated away, so real assets should appreciate as national currencies debase.
Fernando Ulrich Финансовый обозреватель, независимый 0:18
Long-dated Treasuries supported by Treasury intervention
The US Treasury announced it will at least double liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities in the 10-20y and 20-30y sectors, from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation. Ulrich interprets this as de facto yield curve control: the Treasury is not reducing debt or printing money, but is issuing short-dated debt to repurchase older long-dated debt specifically to stop long yields from rising. The announcement alone pushed the 30-year Treasury yield from above 5.3% back below 5.2% and the 10-year from about 4.75% to 4.65%, and he expects authorities to keep acting to hold long yields down.
Fernando Ulrich Финансовый обозреватель, независимый 0:30
US dollar weakens on Treasury regime change
The Treasury announcement is a clear signal that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Trump administration are determined to weaken the US dollar while capping long-term rates. The dollar index (DXY) had recently tested 101 and fell below the important 98.8 level after the announcement, confirming the intended weakening regime.
Fernando Ulrich Финансовый обозреватель, независимый 12:51
USD/BRL falls on US Treasury move
The US Treasury's dollar-weakening signal directly benefits Brazil's exchange rate. USD/BRL had been climbing toward 5.22 and reversed to about 5.17 after the announcement, which Ulrich calls a gift from the US Treasury to Brazil.
Fernando Ulrich Финансовый обозреватель, независимый 13:06
Yen strengthens with policy-backed dollar weakness
The Japanese yen is strengthening as part of the broad dollar selloff after the Treasury announcement, and Ulrich also points to the recent joint US Treasury/Bank of Japan intervention to defend the yen as evidence of the same policy alignment. USD/JPY was down about 0.9% on the day.
Fernando Ulrich Финансовый обозреватель, независимый 13:18
Chinese yuan strengthens as Mar-a-Lago leg
Ulrich reiterates that the Chinese yuan is in a continuous strengthening process and says this is the main leg of the Mar-a-Lago accord. USD/CNY is at a floor around 6.729, a level not seen since 2023, and he sees chances of further yuan strength because that is the explicit policy objective.
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Speakers: Fernando Ulrich  · Tickers: SILVER, BTC, GLD, TLT, IEF, DXY, USD/BRL, FXY, USD/CNY