Chesley Morning Brief: Global Stock Valuation Check [June 29, 2026]

[Chesley Morning Brief] Global Stock Valuation Check [26/06/29]

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 28 июня 2026, 22:15 | 1:56:11 | Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)

Спикеры

Wang Jeong — Глава департамента

Oh Woo-seok — Аналитик внутреннего рынка

Choi Ho — Вице-президент

Park Se-ik — Генеральный директор, бывший главный стратег

The morning briefing covers global equity valuations, with a focus on the recent US semiconductor sell-off, Korean market earnings, the impact of China's CXMT IPO, and crypto sentiment. The hosts identify several tradeable opportunities: a bounce in the semiconductor index, an undervalued Chinese tech name, Bitcoin's approaching bottom zone, and deeply oversold Korean defense, securities, and cosmetics stocks. - US semiconductor index (SMH) plunged but EPS upgrades and compressed valuations argue for an imminent short-term rebound. - Bitcoin is nearing a historical risk/reward extreme around $48k–52k, a potential bottom-entry zone for cautious accumulation. - A Chinese tech stock (이심) fell on Apple fears but has a 40% upside target on better iPhone mix and margins. - Hyundai Rotem has become the cheapest Korean defense name at ~16x P/E, with order catalysts seen later in 2026. - Kiwoom Securities trades at a P/E of 5.4x despite a structural asset-migration story, presenting a value opportunity. - Cosmetics stock APR is cheap and would benefit from a rotation out of overheated semiconductors. - Quarter-end rebalancing and rate-hike fears have caused extreme volatility, but underlying earnings trends remain solid.

Идеи

Wang Jeong Глава департамента 6:00

Apple fears overblown, big upside.

The sharp drop in 이심 was driven by excessive worries that Apple's product price hikes would reduce demand, but iPhones maintained their price and the product mix (Pro Max) is improving, which should boost margins. The company trades at a low multiple and the analysts' target is 97 yuan, implying approximately 40% upside from the last close.

Oh Woo-seok Аналитик внутреннего рынка 23:40

Bitcoin nearing historic bottom-entry zone.

Bitcoin's risk/reward ratio is approaching historically extreme levels near the average cost basis zone ($48,000–$52,000), where long-term holders are showing record unrealized losses and the likelihood of final capitulation is high. Past patterns suggest that this level provides a strong bottom and a subsequent recovery. Cautious investors can wait for a confirmed test of that zone before buying.

Park Se-ik Генеральный директор, бывший главный стратег 76:30

Securities stocks cheap, structural growth intact.

Korean securities stocks, especially Kiwoom Securities, are undergoing structural growth from the migration of financial assets into securities accounts. The recent sharp sell-off has made them extremely cheap (Kiwoom trades at a P/E of 5.4x), and the sector is far from finished, presenting a buying opportunity.

Choi Ho Вице-президент 91:30

Defense oversold on temporary order delay.

Hyundai Rotem has been beaten down on short-term concerns about order delays, but its defense order backlog is robust, margins on the Poland K2 second batch will improve, and the valuation has fallen to around 16x forward P/E – the lowest among Korean defense majors. Upcoming catalysts from Iraq and Romania should drive a re-rating, and the official target is 283,000 KRW.

Park Se-ik Генеральный директор, бывший главный стратег 97:44

Rotation play into cheap cosmetics stock.

If the overheated semiconductor sector takes a breather or weakens, funds will rotate into undervalued and previously overlooked names. APR, a cosmetics stock, has fallen to the low‑20s P/E range and would be a prime beneficiary of such a rotation.

Choi Ho Вице-президент 107:55

Semiconductor index oversold, bounce imminent.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (and SMH ETF) has been severely oversold despite strong EPS upgrades. Valuations have compressed, quarter-end window-dressing and rebalancing are near completion, and institutional investors will need to repurchase. A technical rebound is very likely in the short term.