$FORM Pre-Earnings Thoughts

Gaetano · Gaetano · 29 июля 2026, 13:26 · ⏱ 2 мин чтения  | Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
FORM is a diversified test and measurement company benefiting from several high-growth datacenter sub-markets (HBM, GPUs, networking, advanced packaging). Despite a 50% drop from highs and a still-challenging valuation at ~$88, the author holds a small long position and sees potential upside from upcoming earnings and a strong 2030 revenue/EPS model, with second-half 2027 growth critical to the thesis.
  • FORM's Q2 guide calls for $240M revenue, 49.5% gross margin, and $0.61 non-GAAP EPS, with Street consensus aligned.
  • The stock fell from a peak of ~$160 to ~$87 (nearly 50% drop), which the author views as a healthier entry point.
  • Investor day targets: $1.6B revenue, 55% gross margins, $5 non-GAAP EPS by 2030, implying ~18x P/E at the current price.
  • Author sees the second half of 2027 growth as a key driver and expects Q3 guidance above $250M (sequential growth) to confirm the thesis.
Время чтения 2 мин
Объём 2,121 симв.
Категория finance
Идеи
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
The article notes FORM is exposed to 'advanced packaging' and 'HBM GPUs' — both rely heavily on TSMC's CoWoS and advanced node capacity. FORM's testing demand scales with TSMC's packaging volumes, so
The article notes FORM is exposed to 'advanced packaging' and 'HBM GPUs' — both rely heavily on TSMC's CoWoS and advanced node capacity. FORM's testing demand scales with TSMC's packaging volumes, so TSMC's capacity adds are a leading indicator for FORM's revenue growth. Risk: Geopolitical tensions or capex slowdown at TSMC could reduce the pace of packaging expansion, hitting FORM indirectly.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
The article lists 'HBM' as a key market for FORM. HBM memory content per GPU is rising, and FORM supplies test equipment for HBM stacks. Micron (MU) is a major HBM producer; its HBM ramp directly driv
The article lists 'HBM' as a key market for FORM. HBM memory content per GPU is rising, and FORM supplies test equipment for HBM stacks. Micron (MU) is a major HBM producer; its HBM ramp directly drives demand for FORM's test solutions. Risk: HBM oversupply or a shift in memory technology could reduce test equipment intensity.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
Author has a small long position and is willing to increase it based on upcoming earnings, citing FORM's exposure to high-growth DC markets (HBM, GPUs, advanced packaging) and a long-term model projec
Author has a small long position and is willing to increase it based on upcoming earnings, citing FORM's exposure to high-growth DC markets (HBM, GPUs, advanced packaging) and a long-term model projecting $1.6B revenue and $5 EPS by 2030.
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This newsletter, published July 29, 2026, features Gaetano discussing TSM, MU, FORM. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Gaetano  · Tickers: TSM, MU, FORM