Идеи
The author's core thesis is that Sivers' InP technology and partnerships (Jabil, Ayar Labs) position it for the next-generation CW laser market, despite being late to the first wave. This is a bullish
The author's core thesis is that Sivers' InP technology and partnerships (Jabil, Ayar Labs) position it for the next-generation CW laser market, despite being late to the first wave. This is a bullish setup for the stock if the market shifts to higher-complexity lasers.
Risk: Execution risk: Sivers still needs to achieve meaningful AI volume. Competition from incumbents with established capacity could limit pricing power.
Lumentum is named as an incumbent already shipping CW lasers at scale and ramping higher-power products. This confirms its strong position in the current cycle, which could sustain revenue and margins
Lumentum is named as an incumbent already shipping CW lasers at scale and ramping higher-power products. This confirms its strong position in the current cycle, which could sustain revenue and margins even as the market evolves.
Risk: If the market shifts rapidly to multi-wavelength external sources, Lumentum may need to invest further to stay competitive.
Coherent is also named as an incumbent shipping CW lasers at scale with higher-power product ramps. Its established customer relationships and capacity give it a durable advantage in the near term.
Coherent is also named as an incumbent shipping CW lasers at scale with higher-power product ramps. Its established customer relationships and capacity give it a durable advantage in the near term.
Risk: Similar to Lumentum, exposure to standard pluggable lasers may become commoditized if advanced products dominate.
AAOI is building a massive amount of laser capacity and aims to become a major supplier of ultra-high-power lasers and complete external laser sources, indicating aggressive investment in the segment.
AAOI is building a massive amount of laser capacity and aims to become a major supplier of ultra-high-power lasers and complete external laser sources, indicating aggressive investment in the segment. This suggests potential market share gains.
Risk: Massive capital spending could pressure margins if demand growth slows or if pricing competition intensifies.
Jabil is identified as a partner for Sivers' entry into the 1.6T pluggable cycle, providing a channel to customers. This partnership enhances Sivers' go-to-market capability and could generate revenue
Jabil is identified as a partner for Sivers' entry into the 1.6T pluggable cycle, providing a channel to customers. This partnership enhances Sivers' go-to-market capability and could generate revenue for Jabil as well.
Risk: Dependence on Sivers' laser qualification and volume ramp; Jabil's own margins in optical assembly may be low.
This newsletter, published July 21, 2026,
features Gaetano
discussing SIVE, LITE, COHR, AAOI, JBL.
5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gaetano
· Tickers:
SIVE,
LITE,
COHR,
AAOI,
JBL