Ideas
Lumentum is named as one of the key CW laser suppliers and has had its future capacity locked up by NVIDIA, indicating strong customer validation and guaranteed demand. The article notes 'Lumentum say
Lumentum is named as one of the key CW laser suppliers and has had its future capacity locked up by NVIDIA, indicating strong customer validation and guaranteed demand. The article notes 'Lumentum says interest in NPO has increased rapidly among customers building custom AI accelerators' and that NVIDIA 'moved early and locked up a significant portion of future capacity'. This positions Lumentum as a likely beneficiary of the CW laser bottleneck.
Risk: Customer concentration with NVIDIA could lead to revenue volatility if AI spending slows or if NVIDIA shifts to alternative suppliers.
Coherent is ramping InP capacity and has described a high-power CPO laser at 400mW. The article states 'Coherent says both EML and silicon-photonics modules are ramping at 1.6T' and that NVIDIA has lo
Coherent is ramping InP capacity and has described a high-power CPO laser at 400mW. The article states 'Coherent says both EML and silicon-photonics modules are ramping at 1.6T' and that NVIDIA has locked up significant capacity at Coherent as well. Coherent is also developing VCSEL-based NPO and integrated InP transmitters, giving it multiple architectural paths. The article positions Coherent as a key supplier for the high-power CW market.
Risk: Execution risk in transitioning from EML to silicon-photonics CW lasers and potential margin pressure from NVIDIA's pricing power.
AAOI has publicly introduced a 400mW CW laser for CPO/NPO ELSFP and provided detailed commentary on die size and manufacturing difficulty. The article cites AAOI's examples that 'the die inside a CPO
AAOI has publicly introduced a 400mW CW laser for CPO/NPO ELSFP and provided detailed commentary on die size and manufacturing difficulty. The article cites AAOI's examples that 'the die inside a CPO laser can be five or six times larger' and that the manufacturing challenge is 'more than ten times harder'. AAOI is actively ramping InP capacity and is one of the five companies with CW exposure, indicating potential upside if qualification hurdles are cleared.
Risk: Long qualification cycles (21-24 months) and the risk that AAOI's high-power lasers may not achieve commercial scale before competitors like Lumentum and Coherent.
MACOM has shown strong optical performance from its ~75mW CW laser and customers have tested and validated it, but the article explicitly points out that MACOM is 'still working through process stabil
MACOM has shown strong optical performance from its ~75mW CW laser and customers have tested and validated it, but the article explicitly points out that MACOM is 'still working through process stabilization and internal reliability before module qualification and hyperscaler approval', and management 'guided investors away from including meaningful CW revenue in fiscal 2026 or even fiscal 2027 models'. This suggests MACOM will likely miss the early phases of the CW ramp, reducing its near-term upside.
Risk: Even after qualification, MACOM may face capacity constraints or pricing pressure compared to earlier-movers like Lumentum and Coherent.
Sivers is mentioned as 'working toward new CW laser products' and is included as one of the five names with CW exposure. The article implies that Sivers is still in development phase but could capture
Sivers is mentioned as 'working toward new CW laser products' and is included as one of the five names with CW exposure. The article implies that Sivers is still in development phase but could capture demand if it can reach qualification before the major NPO/CPO ramps. The author notes that 'CW laser exposure sounds like one category but is really five very different investment setups', suggesting Sivers may offer asymmetric upside if it succeeds.
Risk: Sivers is a small-cap with high execution risk; it may fail to secure capacity or customer qualifications in time, and its stock is highly volatile.
This newsletter, published July 21, 2026,
features Gaetano
discussing LITE, COHR, AAOI, MTSI, SIVE.
5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gaetano
· Tickers:
LITE,
COHR,
AAOI,
MTSI,
SIVE