We Have Some Strong Signals For Photonics

Gaetano · Gaetano · 11 августа 2026, 22:01 · ⏱ 4 мин чтения  | Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
The AAOI call shows the photonics supply/demand imbalance is structural: even AOI, Lumentum, Coherent, and Broadcom combined won't be enough to meet customer demand over the next few years. CPO lasers require roughly 6x the manufacturing capacity per laser, so companies with InP/laser capacity and expansion plans (LITE, COHR, SIVE, AAOI) have strong multi-year demand visibility — even after stocks already ran 50-100% off the July 30 low.
  • •Since the July 30 bottom, many photonics stocks are up over 50%, and some are up over 100%.
  • •AAOI's call stated that even combined AOI, Lumentum, Coherent, and Broadcom all together still makes it very tough to meet customer demand in the next few years.
  • •COHR is doubling existing InP output by YE26 and plans to more than double again by YE27; its 6-inch platform is producing EMLs, CW lasers, and photodiodes at yields above its mature 3-inch line, with book-to-bill above 4 and orders extending into 2028.
  • •LITE, even after an 8x increase in EML output, still falls short by more than 30%; global InP capacity could expand another 2-4x over three years and still remain imbalanced due to 1.6T, 3.2T, scale-across, UHP, ELS, NPO, and CPO pulling from the same capacity pool.
  • •NVIDIA has locked up a considerable amount of LITE's supply and has options for more.
  • •CPO lasers consume dramatically more manufacturing capacity than today's transceiver lasers: power is several times larger and the size is about 6x or higher.
  • •SIVE has a large and growing opportunity pipeline, is adding InP manufacturing capacity through Glasgow and WIN, and has commercial paths through Ayar, Jabil, POET, and GFS, but still needs to convert demand into orders and realized revenue.
Время чтения 4 мин
Объём 4,503 симв.
Категория finance
Идеи
crux_capital_ Independent Photonics & AI Infrastructure Researcher
The article says LITE's CEO sees the supply/demand gap growing: even after an 8x increase in EML output, LITE still falls short by more than 30%, and NVIDIA has locked up a considerable amount of supp
The article says LITE's CEO sees the supply/demand gap growing: even after an 8x increase in EML output, LITE still falls short by more than 30%, and NVIDIA has locked up a considerable amount of supply — giving LITE multi-year demand visibility. Risk: If global InP capacity expands 2-4x faster than demand materializes, the current shortage and LITE's leverage could reverse.
LITE
crux_capital_ Independent Photonics & AI Infrastructure Researcher
The author says if combined AOI/Lumentum/Coherent/Broadcom can't meet demand, any other qualified capacity becomes valuable; SIVE has a large pipeline, is adding InP capacity via Glasgow/WIN, and has
The author says if combined AOI/Lumentum/Coherent/Broadcom can't meet demand, any other qualified capacity becomes valuable; SIVE has a large pipeline, is adding InP capacity via Glasgow/WIN, and has routes through Ayar/Jabil/POET/GFS. Risk: SIVE has not yet converted its opportunity pipeline into orders and revenue, so the thesis depends on execution.
SIVE
crux_capital_ Independent Photonics & AI Infrastructure Researcher
AAOI's own call is the source of the industry-wide demand signal: even combined AOI/Lumentum/Coherent/Broadcom can't meet customer demand, and the author calls the call bullish for AAOI, though more b
AAOI's own call is the source of the industry-wide demand signal: even combined AOI/Lumentum/Coherent/Broadcom can't meet customer demand, and the author calls the call bullish for AAOI, though more bullish for others. Risk: The author explicitly says other companies benefit even more from the same call, so AAOI may lag peers in relative upside.
AAOI
crux_capital_ Independent Photonics & AI Infrastructure Researcher
The article details COHR's expansion — doubling InP output by YE26 and more than doubling again by YE27, with 6-inch yields above its mature 3-inch line and book-to-bill above 4 — indicating strong ab
The article details COHR's expansion — doubling InP output by YE26 and more than doubling again by YE27, with 6-inch yields above its mature 3-inch line and book-to-bill above 4 — indicating strong absorption of its huge capacity. Risk: The author flags that the ramp's margin impact is still unproven; execution or yield issues could undermine the bullish case.
COHR
Ещё от Gaetano
$LITE (Lumentum) Pre-Earnings Thoughts
10 авг, 21:32
Unpacking My Physical AI Portfolio
09 авг, 19:29
$AAOI Earnings. They Said Some Wild Stuff.
07 авг, 03:49
$AAOI The Time Has Come
06 авг, 13:27
VIAV, VECO, AEVA, VPG Reported Earnings Today. One New Position. One Big Shock.
06 авг, 05:17

This newsletter, published August 11, 2026, features crux_capital_ discussing LITE, SIVE, AAOI, COHR. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: crux_capital_  · Tickers: LITE, SIVE, AAOI, COHR