New Thematic Position: Fade Rate Hike Pricing

Bob Elliott · Nonconsensus · 24 июня 2026, 16:46  | Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
The article argues that a significant disinflationary impulse is approaching just as the market has priced in more rate hikes, creating a mismatch. The author's thematic position is to fade (bet against) those hike expectations, which implies a bearish view on short-term interest rates and a bullish view on bonds if disinflation materializes.
  • Macro conditions are aligning for a 'significant disinflationary impulse.'
  • Market expectations for rate hikes have 'increased significantly' recently.
  • The author's thematic position is to 'fade' the current rate hike pricing.
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